Europe’s air defence crisis and the shadow of a missile shield

NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte has called for a 400% increase in the Alliance’s air and missile defence capabilities, alongside a massive expansion of weaponry, logistics, and medical support, to counter growing threats from Russia.

Speaking at Chatham House in London on 9 June, Rutte outlined ambitious targets agreed upon by NATO defence ministers last week, warning that without significant investment, the Alliance’s collective defence would falter.

His remarks underscore the vulnerabilities of NATO’s European members in air and missile defence, a concern amplified by former U.S. President Donald Trump’s unfulfilled “Golden Dome” proposal for a continental missile shield. As Russia’s aggression in Ukraine highlights the Kremlin’s aerial capabilities, NATO’s European nations face critical gaps in their ability to protect their skies.

Trump Unveils $175 Billion Golden Dome missile defence plan

Rutte’s speech emphasized the urgent need to bolster air and missile defence systems, describing a 400% increase as essential to counter Russia’s “terror from above,” as witnessed in Ukraine.

“The exact details are classified, but we need a fourfold enhancement in air and missile defence,” he said, framing the expansion as a cornerstone of NATO’s strategy to strengthen its “shield that protects our sky.”

Beyond air defences, Rutte called for thousands of new armoured vehicles and tanks, millions of additional artillery shells, and a doubling of logistics, transportation, and medical support capabilities. He highlighted plans for increased investments in warships, aircraft – including at least 700 F-35 fighter jets to be purchased by American allies – drones, long-range missile systems, and space and cyber capabilities.

“Russia could be ready to use military force against NATO within five years. Let’s not kid ourselves, we are all on the Eastern flank now,” Rutte said.

Russia, he warned, is rebuilding its forces with Chinese tech, while simultaneously drawing closer to Iran and North Korea. Meanwhile, China is racing ahead with military expansion: its navy is already the world’s largest, and its nuclear arsenal could exceed 1,000 operational warheads by 2030.

“Those who stand against freedom and democracy are digging in… preparing for long-term confrontation,” he said.

5% defence spending: Grounded in hard facts

At the heart of Rutte’s vision is a new NATO-wide commitment to spend 5% of GDP on defence, a “defining moment” for the Alliance. While all allies are expected to hit the long-standing 2% threshold this year, Rutte said it is no longer enough.

The proposed 5% would include: 3.5% for core military capabilities; 1.5% for broader security investments, including infrastructure and industrial capacity.

“5% is not some figure plucked from the air, it’s grounded in hard facts”, Rutte argued. “We need a quantum leap in our collective defence.”

Rutte also made it clear he wants NATO to become an engine of technological innovation, pointing to how $400 drones are destroying $2 million tanks in Ukraine.

The Secretary General’s stark assessment reflects NATO’s recognition of a shifting security landscape. Rutte warned that a ceasefire in Ukraine could allow Russia to rearm, increasing risks to NATO, and suggested Moscow could target Alliance members within five years.

“If we do not invest more, our collective defence will not be reliable,” he stressed, urging member states to prioritize modernisation and readiness.

“We will always be a defensive Alliance”

Rutte was equally clear that a “more lethal” NATO is not an offensive one. But it must show the capacity and resolve to respond forcefully if attacked.

“We can, and will, hit back harder”, he said. “With our military power and our resolve to use it, if necessary – no one should even think about attacking us.”

The Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov said on Monday that NATO’s plan for a huge boost to its air and missile defence capabilities was confrontational and would come at the expense of European taxpayers who were being asked to pay to defuse a threat that in his words did not exist.

NATO’s European air and missile defence vulnerabilities

NATO’s European members face significant weaknesses in air and missile defence, leaving them exposed to Russia’s advanced missile and drone capabilities. These vulnerabilities stem from decades of underinvestment, fragmented systems, and reliance on U.S. support.

Europe’s air defence systems are a patchwork of aging and incompatible platforms. Many NATO members rely on Soviet-era systems or outdated Western technologies, such as the Patriot and SAMP/T systems, which lack the capacity to counter modern threats like hypersonic missiles, cruise missiles, and swarms of low-cost drones.

For instance, Germany’s air defence relies heavily on a limited number of Patriot batteries, while countries like Poland and Romania have made strides with U.S.-provided systems but lack sufficient coverage. Smaller nations, such as the Baltic states, have minimal capabilities, depending on NATO’s rotational deployments for protection.

The Ukraine conflict has exposed these shortcomings. Russia’s use of Iskander ballistic missiles, Kalibr cruise missiles, and Iranian-supplied Shahed drones has overwhelmed Ukraine’s defences at times, despite significant Western aid. European NATO members, with fewer interceptors and less integrated systems, would struggle to repel similar attacks.

The Alliance’s Integrated Air and Missile Defence (IAMD) system, designed to coordinate national assets, suffers from interoperability issues and insufficient stockpiles of munitions, a problem exacerbated by the depletion of reserves sent to Ukraine.

Europe’s reliance on U.S. systems, such as Aegis Ashore sites in Poland and Romania, further complicates its vulnerabilities. While these assets enhance NATO’s defence against ballistic missiles, they are U.S.-controlled and primarily serve American strategic interests. European nations lack autonomous systems of comparable scale, and the U.S. has signalled that its support may wane if allies fail to meet NATO’s 2% GDP defence spending target – a point Trump repeatedly emphasized. With Trump’s potential return to power in 2025, European leaders fear renewed pressure to fund their own defences, amplifying the urgency of Rutte’s call.

Logistical and industrial challenges compound the problem. Producing air defence systems and munitions, such as Patriot interceptors or NASAMS missiles, is time-intensive and costly. Europe’s defence industry, fragmented across national lines, struggles to scale production, and supply chain disruptions for critical components like semiconductors persist. Initiatives like the European Sky Shield Initiative (ESSI), launched in 2022 to coordinate air defence procurement, have progressed slowly, with France and Italy reluctant to join due to preferences for domestic systems.

Broader implications

Rutte’s warnings highlight the existential stakes for NATO. Russia’s missile advancements, coupled with its willingness to target civilian infrastructure in Ukraine, signal a direct threat to European security. A potential Russian attack within five years, as Rutte suggested, would exploit NATO’s air defence gaps, particularly in Eastern Europe. Meanwhile, China’s growing missile capabilities and Iran’s drone exports add complexity to the threat landscape.

Addressing these vulnerabilities requires unprecedented investment and coordination. According to experts NATO’s European members must prioritize joint procurement, standardize systems, and expand munitions stockpiles. As NATO prepares for its next summit, Rutte’s speech serves as a clarion call.

Caption: NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte looks on during talks with British Prime Minister Keir Starmer(not pictured) at 10 Downing Street in London, Britain, 9 June 2025. [EPA-EFE/ANDY RAIN / POOL]