EU leaders convene in Brussels amid escalating global crises and transatlantic rift

European Union leaders opened a high-stakes two-day European Council summit in Brussels today with an unusually heavy agenda dominated by the spiralling military escalation in the Middle East, the ongoing war in Ukraine, and mounting transatlantic tensions with Washington.

As the bloc grapples with the fallout from the U.S.-Israeli war on Iran – now in its third week – the 27 heads of state and government will confront energy price shocks, security dilemmas and a firm collective message to U.S. President Donald Trump: “This is not our war.”

UN Secretary-General António Guterres is expected to join EU leaders for a working lunch on Thursday to discuss the deteriorating international situation and ways to defend multilateralism. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy is due to address the summit (online) at the start of the dedicated Ukraine session, where leaders will review the latest battlefield developments and reaffirm support for Kyiv.

The timing could hardly be more charged. Just 24 hours earlier, European capitals delivered a blunt rebuff to Trump’s repeated calls for allies to deploy naval forces to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, through which 20% of global oil and LNG flows. German Chancellor Friedrich Merz told parliament: “This is not our war, we have not started it.” French President Emmanuel Macron declared, “We are not party to the conflict,” while EU foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas summed up the prevailing mood: Europe will stay focused and calm amid unpredictability rather than commit troops.

The near-closure of the Hormuz route has already pushed oil prices up around 45% since the conflict began, fuelling inflation fears across the continent. EU leaders will discuss immediate measures to protect citizens and companies, de-escalation efforts, and the worrying situations in Lebanon, Gaza and the West Bank.

Beyond the Middle East, the summit will tackle the EU’s strategic competitiveness and the next Multiannual Financial Framework (2028–2034). Leaders are expected to endorse a “One Europe, One Market” agenda with ambitious deadlines for deepening the single market, simplifying rules, reducing administrative burdens and mobilising investment in innovation and the energy transition. Discussions on the long-term budget will focus on matching the bloc’s ambitions with adequate funding.

Security and defence will feature prominently. The meeting will review progress on boosting defence readiness, reducing strategic dependencies, closing critical capability gaps and launching joint projects on drones and counter-drone systems. In the current geopolitical climate – marked by Russian aggression in Ukraine and uncertainty over U.S. commitments – these steps are seen as essential for strengthening Europe’s strategic autonomy while remaining complementary to NATO.

Migration will also return to the table, with leaders examining how the worsening Middle East situation is affecting irregular arrivals and the implementation of previous EU conclusions on asylum and border management.

On Ukraine, the summit will reaffirm that increasing pressure on Russia until it engages in meaningful peace negotiations remains essential. Leaders will discuss further support, including the already-agreed €90 billion loan for 2026–2027. The EU has already provided €194.9 billion in total assistance, including €69.7 billion in military aid.

European Council President António Costa set the tone in his invitation letter: “The military escalation in the Middle East is causing global instability, and its negative consequences are already being felt in Europe.” He added that hearing from Zelenskyy would underscore the need for continued solidarity with Ukraine as it enters the fifth year of Russia’s war of aggression.

Pundits are expressing cautious optimism that the deployment of independent European experts to assess the Russian-damaged Druzhba pipeline – a mission specifically requested by Budapest – could finally break the deadlock and persuade Hungary to lift its veto on the €90 billion financial assistance package for Ukraine.

EU experts set to inspect Russian-damaged Druzhba oil pipeline in Ukraine

However, diplomats cited by Suspilne expressed pessimism that the €90 billion EU financial assistance package for Ukraine will be unlocked during this summit.

The EU leaders meet at a moment when Europe is visibly recalibrating its relationship with Washington. Trump’s open criticism of allies for refusing to join operations in Iran – and his earlier threats over Greenland and tariffs – have accelerated calls for greater EU self-reliance in defence and energy security.

Whether the two days in Brussels will produce concrete decisions or merely political guidance remains to be seen. But the message emerging from European capitals is clear: while the EU remains committed to transatlantic partnership, it will not be drawn into conflicts it did not choose – and it intends to use this crisis to accelerate its own strategic autonomy.

With Guterres at the table and Zelenskyy’s voice in the room, the summit offers a rare opportunity for the bloc to project unity and multilateral leadership at a time when both are under severe pressure. The world will be watching closely.

Caption: EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen (R) receives Secretary-General of the United Nations Antonio Guterres (L) during his visit to the European Institutions in the EU Commission in Brussels, Belgium, 18 March 2026. EPA/OLIVIER MATTHYS