EU enlargement in the Western Balkans: Montenegro’s momentum and Serbia’s challenges

European Council President António Costa embarked on a tour of Western Balkan EU hopefuls from 12 to 16 May, with his messages closely scrutinised as Brussels prioritises the region in its geopolitical strategy. As the tour continues, Montenegro has emerged as a frontrunner, aiming to become the 28th EU member state by 2028 or sooner, while Serbia faces significant obstacles due to its foreign policy and domestic issues.

Montenegro: A model for EU integration

Montenegro has made notable progress toward EU membership since gaining candidate status in 2010 and starting accession talks in 2012. It has opened all 33 negotiating chapters and closed six of them, positioning itself as a leader among the six Western Balkan candidates. During Costa’s visit to Podgorica on 14 May, he praised Montenegro’s “impressive” progress, particularly its full alignment with the EU’s Common Foreign and Security Policy (CFSP), including support for Ukraine.

The European Parliament recently acknowledged this progress, reinforcing Montenegro’s positive trajectory.

President Jakov Milatović expressed Montenegro’s ambition to see the “light at the end of the tunnel” for EU enlargement, emphasising its goal to be a successful European story. The slogan “28 by 2028” encapsulates this ambition, with Costa suggesting membership could be achieved even earlier. This optimism stems from Montenegro’s political consensus, institutional stability, and ongoing reforms.

Still, Montenegro faces some challenges in completing its accession process. Key areas needing reform include:

• Rule of Law: Strengthening judicial independence and tackling corruption are critical to closing remaining chapters.
• Media Freedom: Ensuring a free and independent press is vital for EU alignment.
• Good Neighbourly Relations: Maintaining positive ties with EU member states, such as Croatia and Slovenia, is a prerequisite for membership.

Costa stressed the importance of these reforms, urging Montenegro to sustain its focus and momentum. Vanja Starovlah, a project manager at the Network of Associations of Local Authorities of South-East Europe (NALAS), highlighted the role of local self-government in supporting Montenegro’s EU negotiations, emphasising grassroots efforts in the accession process.

A notable challenge is Montenegro’s ongoing economic cooperation with the United Arab Emirates (UAE), particularly investments by businessman Mohammed Alabar in Ulcinj.

The Montenegrin Parliament adopted laws confirming agreements on economic cooperation and tourism/real estate development, but President Milatović returned them for revision due to concerns about alignment with the EU legislation, particularly in public procurement and environmental protection. Local communities, environmentalists, and opposition groups oppose the project, citing environmental risks and a lack of transparency. Costa echoed these concerns, stressing that such agreements must comply with EU standards to avoid derailing Montenegro’s accession.

Serbia: A difficult path to EU membership

In contrast, Serbia’s EU accession has stalled, as highlighted during Costa’s visit to Belgrade on May 13. The European Parliament’s resolution on May 7, based on Commission reports from 2023 and 2024, outlined Serbia’s lack of progress over the past decade. Key issues include:

• Foreign Policy Misalignment: Serbia’s inconsistent stance on Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and its ties with Russia and China diverge from EU foreign policy. President Aleksandar Vučić’s attendance at a Moscow parade on May 9 drew sharp criticism from Costa and European Parliament rapporteur Tonino Picula, who argued that such actions are incompatible with EU candidacy.
• Domestic Challenges: Serbia struggles with media freedom, rule of law, corruption, electoral transparency, and respect for human rights. Declining public support for EU membership and growing support for Russia further complicate matters.
• Belgrade-Pristina Dialogue: The lack of progress in normalising relations with Kosovo, its former province that declared independence in 2008, remains a significant barrier.

Costa emphasised that “the ball is in Serbia’s court”, urging reforms in media freedom, anti-corruption measures, and electoral laws to open the so-called Cluster Three in negotiations. He acknowledged Serbia’s historical celebrations but stressed that condemning Russia’s current actions is essential for EU alignment.

Despite warnings against visiting Belgrade, Costa opted for dialogue over isolation, stating: “The only way to deal with differences is to talk and understand each other.”

His meetings with Vučić, Prime Minister Đuro Macut, Speaker Ana Brnabić, and opposition groups underscored his commitment to rebuilding trust in the enlargement process. Costa highlighted the EU’s role as a collaborative effort to overcome historical conflicts, urging Serbia to seize the current momentum to advance its European path.

Regional context: Bosnia and Herzegovina’s challenges

In Sarajevo, Costa expressed concern over secessionist rhetoric in Republika Srpska, of of the two autonomous parts of Bosnia-Herzegovina, which threatens the country’s territorial integrity and EU path. He urged political leaders to reduce tensions and implement reforms, including judicial laws, appointing a chief negotiator, and adopting the EU’s Growth Plan. Bosnia’s failure to access the Growth Plan, unlike other Western Balkan countries, highlights its stagnation. Costa’s visit to EUFOR Althea troops underscored the EU’s commitment to regional stability, especially on the 30th anniversary of the Srebrenica genocide and the Dayton/Paris agreement that ended the 1992-95 war.

Broader Western Balkan engagement

Costa’s tour includes visits to Pristina, Skopje, and Tirana, concluding at the sixth summit of the European Political Community (EPC) in Tirana on May 16. The summit, themed “New Europe in a New World: Unity – Cooperation – Joint Action,” will focus on security and Europe’s future. Albania, alongside Montenegro, was noted as a frontrunner.

The EU’s renewed focus on the Western Balkans is driven by the need to counter Russian and Chinese influence in a vulnerable region. Montenegro’s alignment with EU values strengthens this position, while Serbia’s ties with Russia and Bosnia’s internal divisions pose challenges. The Growth Plan and EUFOR Althea’s presence are tools to incentivise reforms and ensure stability. Costa’s emphasis on enlargement as a “geopolitical investment” reflects the EU’s goal of fostering regional integration while countering external influences.

The EU’s commitment to enlargement, demonstrated by Costa’s tour and the EPC Summit, underscores its strategic priority to integrate the Western Balkans, ensuring stability and countering external influences. Sustained political will, regional cooperation, and adherence to EU standards will be critical to achieving this vision.

Caption: Montenegro’s President Jakov Milatovic (R) and the European Council President Antonio Costa (L) inspect the honor guard ahead of their meeting in Podgorica, Montenegro, 14 May 2025. [EPA-EFE/BORIS PEJOVIC]

Updated: May 29, 2025 - 10:24