EU and Ukraine at a geopolitical turning point

The EU and Ukraine find themselves in a challenging and difficult position, the only way forward for them being to jointly become a true player in global geopolitics, writes Roman Rukomeda.

Roman Rukomeda is a Ukrainian political analyst writing exclusively for EUalive

We are witnessing the most dynamic geopolitical shifts of the 21st century. The United States, led by President Donald Trump, is dramatically transforming its domestic policies and approaches, triggering a “domino effect” in the defence and security sphere and the system of checks and balances, not only for the West but for the entire world. As an example of this new reality, not only Ukraine but also the European Union and neighbouring countries have begun to feel absolutely helpless and unprotected.

Suddenly, it has become clear that the only guarantees for peace and protection in Europe and beyond are a truly strong army and, if possible, nuclear weapons. As a result, the world is sinking into a new arms race and a search for nuclear capabilities. This could have been halted in 2022–2023 when Ukraine pleaded for more military aid from the U.S. and Europe, warning of the dire consequences of passivity and fear in Western capitals. Nevertheless, those warnings were ignored, and now we must face this new reality.

This is a reality without international law or norms – a reality where state sovereignty is no longer a red line that cannot be crossed, even in Europe; a reality where the primacy of human rights is absent, as hordes of aggressors from Russia, North Korea, and Iran, alongside African mercenaries, attack the largest European country without serious or painful consequences from the international community.

International organisations appear pathetic and useless, capable only of demonstrating their zero practical value while sustaining their own budgets. Soon, we might witness NATO facing its greatest internal crisis, as the U.S. may announce a military withdrawal from Europe and put in doubt the famous Article 5. Who knows what reason would be serious enough for President Trump to impose new U.S. sanctions on Russia? So far, we observe a “blind love” from the American president for the Russian dictator, despite all of Putin’s atrocities and crimes in Ukraine.

In this situation, the EU and Ukraine find themselves in a challenging and difficult position. First, an American withdrawal from the war in Ukraine and a shift toward neutrality – or even a more favorable stance – toward the Russian aggressor leaves Kyiv, Brussels, and other European capitals with only one option: self-reliance. This demands fast, deep integration between the EU and Ukraine, spanning industry, high-tech, and military cooperation. Any obstacles, such as pro-Russian proxies like Hungary’s Orbán or Slovakia’s Fico, must be addressed and neutralized. Joint weapons production, the exchange of expertise, testing of new technologies, and unified military strategies and tactics must form the foundation for all European countries that recognise Ukraine as the first line of defence for the continent.

At the same time, Europe must learn to live without the United States as its protector and defender of peace and democracy. It appears Washington is choosing geopolitical chaos based on a series of “big beautiful deals.” In truth, this approach only fuels a growing number of wars and atrocities worldwide – Russian aggression against Ukraine, a new war in the Middle East, and now clashes between India and Pakistan. What could be next? An attack by North Korea, which is actively learning modern warfare, or a Chinese military operation against Taiwan? And where does the United States stand amid these active and potential conflicts?

Second, China, which backs Russia in its aggression against Ukraine, is becoming more active in Europe. The European market holds immense value for Beijing. Without it, combined with a trade war from the U.S., the Chinese economy risks collapse in the long term. So why does China continue to support Russia, risking its EU economic partnership? European leaders must now demand that Beijing focus all efforts on stopping the war in Ukraine, based on international law and respect for Ukraine’s sovereignty. In this case, new economic agreements between the EU and China could be forged. Otherwise, a highly likely Russian aggression against European states in the Baltic region could destroy all prospects for China’s economy in Europe.

The EU and Ukraine, two parts destined to become one, can survive only through unity. This must happen now, without any loss of time. It is the path for Europe to become a true player in global geopolitics. This is also the crossroads where the moves of the U.S., China, and Russia will shape the new configuration of security and even civilisational borders for decades to come in the 21st century.

Caption: France’s President Emmanuel Macron, Germany’s Chancellor Friedrich Merz, Britain’s Prime Minister Keir Starmer, Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelensky and Poland’s Prime Minister Donald Tusk react at the end of a joint press conference following a meeting of the ‘Coalition of the willing’ at the Mariinskyi Palace, the official residence of the president of Ukraine, in Kyiv, Ukraine, 10 May 2025, amid the ongoing Russian invasion. [EPA-EFE/DAREK DELMANOWICZ]