Erdoğan trails every major opposition rival in run-off scenarios

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan would lose a potential presidential run-off against Ankara Mayor Mansur Yavas, jailed Istanbul Mayor Ekrem İmamoğlu or the leader of the main opposition New Party (Yeni Parti), Özgür Özel, according to a poll by Gündemar Research.

Yavas would receive 60.17% of the vote against 39.83% for Erdoğan, giving the Ankara mayor a 20.34 percentage-point lead. Özel would win 58.73% against Erdoğan’s 41.27%, while İmamoğlu would lead the president by 57.47% to 42.53%.

The poll surveyed 2,300 adults in 60 of Turkey’s 81 provinces between 28 and 31 July through telephone interviews and online questionnaires.

A separate poll by Turkish agency Metropoll, cited by Turkish Minute, found that the opposition New Party, founded less than a month ago, would lead Erdogan’s ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP) by 7.9 percentage points.

The poll, conducted at the end of July among more than 1,200 respondents, found that the New Party would receive 30.3% of the vote if parliamentary elections were held now, making it Turkey’s largest political force. The AKP would come second with 22.4%.

The pro-Kurdish DEM Party would rank third with 5.4%, followed by the nationalist Good Party with 3.9%, the Nationalist Movement Party (MHP) with 3.6% and the opposition Republican People’s Party (CHP) with 2.9%.

The reported margin of error is 2.04 percentage points at a 95% confidence level. A majority of Turkish citizens currently favour snap elections, driven by the country’s difficult economic situation and growing fatigue with the AKP’s long-standing rule. The results are striking given the intense political and judicial pressure facing the opposition.

İmamoğlu, one of the opposition’s most prominent figures, is currently in prison awaiting trial on corruption charges, which he categorically denies. The opposition says the case is politically motivated and aimed at removing him from the political arena.

The New Party was founded by former CHP leader Özgur Ozgur Özel at the end of July, after he and 90 MPs left the CHP. The move followed a prolonged crisis within the CHP, largely triggered by legal proceedings against a number of its members, including mayors and senior party officials, over corruption allegations that began in late 2024.

The party was further divided in late May after an Ankara appeals court annulled the CHP’s 38th regular congress, held in 2023, removed the party leadership headed by Özel and reinstated former leader Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu and his administration. The ruling effectively split the party into two factions and paved the way for the creation of the new movement.

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Undecided voters, those without an opinion and those intending to cast a protest vote were excluded before the results were recalculated for a head-to-head contest between the two candidates in each run-off scenario.

Gündemar Research warned that the figures should not be interpreted as an election forecast and could change depending on the candidates, campaigns and political alliances.

Yavas remains a member of the CHP, while Özel leads the New Party, which he established in July after a court ruling removed him as CHP leader.

İmamoğlu joined the new formation on 13 August but remains in prison awaiting trial on corruption charges, which he denies. The revocation of his university degree has also cast doubt on his eligibility to run for president.

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The opposition describes the cases against İmamoğlu as politically motivated, while the government maintains that the judiciary is acting independently. Turkey’s next elections are scheduled for 2028. Under the constitution, Erdoğan can run again only if parliament calls an early election during his current term.

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Sources: Turkish minute, BGNES, BGNES

Caption: Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas (not pictured) attend a press conference following their meeting in Ankara, Turkey, 12 August 2026. Abbas is in Turkey for an official visit. EPA/NECATI SAVAS