Dutch vote in elections in test of European populism’s reach

The Dutch vote in a national election on Wednesday (29 October) with a choice between doubling down on the anti-immigration nationalism of populist Geert Wilders, who sank the last conservative coalition after a fractious two years, or a return to the centre.

With nationalist parties topping polls in Britain, France and Germany, the Dutch vote is a test of whether populism can expand its reach or whether it has peaked in parts of Europe.

Only two years ago, Wilders led his party to a stunning first-place finish in the 2023 election and formed an all-conservative coalition – although his partners refused to endorse him as prime minister. He brought it down in June over its refusal to adopt hardline, anti-refugee measures.

PVV ahead but by a narrow margin

Opinion polls show Wilders’ Freedom Party (PVV) winning but only by a narrow margin, with the four centrist parties spanning the mainstream right and left all finishing within a few seats of the bleached-blond admirer of U.S. President Donald Trump.

All four, including the centre-right VVD and Christian Democrats, have said they would not enter into a coalition with Wilders and his PVV party, meaning he would likely be blocked from power unless he wins by an unexpectedly wide margin.

Polling stations open as early as 6:30 a.m. (0530 GMT) in some locations to make it easier for commuters to vote and close at 9 p.m. The first exit poll, which historically has proven accurate, will be released at the close of voting.

Tough coalition talks lie ahead

Dutch elections have become increasingly unpredictable and building stable coalitions is a fraught task which can take weeks or months.

Opinion polls showed nearly half the electorate was still undecided days ahead of the vote.

Wilders, one of Europe’s longest-serving populist leaders, is renowned for his anti-Islam stance and lives under constant protection due to death threats. He proposes saving funds by denying all asylum requests — which would violate EU treaties — sending male Ukrainian refugees back to Ukraine, and halting development aid to finance energy and healthcare benefits.

In Volendam, a fishing town near Amsterdam and a Wilders’ stronghold, some locals are sticking with him even after the last government with his pick for prime minister failed to deliver the EU’s toughest immigration regime, or address an acute housing shortage.

“We need to be able to take care of ourselves, and that’s why I’m voting for PVV. Our own people first,” Jaap Schilder, 40, fish shop owner and local politician, told Reuters.

The PVV has seen some of its support siphoned away by the Christian Democrats, whose new leader Henri Bontenbal is campaigning on a pledge of government stability and traditional values.

Also on the rise is the Centrist D66, which has scored with the positive messaging of its polished frontman Rob Jetten. Jetten promises to build more houses and spend more on education.

Wilders seen first, but support ebbing

Analysts say that Wilders’ ebbing support reflects voter frustration over chaotic infighting in the last coalition. His gushing praise of Trump’s leadership and the U.S. president’s perceived willingness to test the limits of U.S. democracy also unsettles some voters.

“I wouldn’t sleep well at night,” Volendam pensioner Greta Blakborn, who is active for the local chapter of the Labour-Green Left party, said of a potential Wilders win.

The stated refusal of mainstream parties to enter into an alliance with Wilders may give rise to tactical voting in favour of other conservative parties, political analysts said.

“(Even) if Wilders gets most votes and most seats in parliament, he will probably not get into the coalition,” said University of Amsterdam electoral politics professor Henk van der Kolk.

Risks for Ukraine

According to EUalive’s partner European Pravda, the primary threat to Ukraine from the Netherlands is not a policy shift after elections, but prolonged political instability in one of Kyiv’s key allies.

Despite war fatigue across Europe, Dutch support for Ukraine remains strong. Nearly all major parties back continued military, financial, and humanitarian aid in the fight against Russian aggression.Pro-aid parties: GroenLinks-PvdA, D66, Volt, CDA, VVD, and ChristenUnie.

Center-left groups advocate a leading Dutch role in this support, while Geert Wilders’ right-wing PVV limits itself to rhetoric, claiming the Netherlands has “done enough.”

A broad national consensus on Ukraine makes it unlikely that Wilders – acting alone – could alter Dutch policy.

Greater division exists over Ukraine’s NATO and EU membership. Only GroenLinks-PvdA, D66, and Volt openly support swift accession, including phased integration. Most other parties cite standard membership criteria without firm commitments; right-wing forces oppose enlargement outright.

On Russia, most parties agree on maintaining or tightening sanctions, investigating war crimes, and establishing a tribunal in The Hague. Right-wing populists, however, avoid the issue.

Thus, even a second Wilders victory is unlikely to reverse Dutch foreign policy.The real risk lies elsewhere: parliamentary fragmentation and efforts to exclude Wilders could trigger a prolonged political crisis. In such a scenario, the Netherlands may focus inward, reducing attention to NATO’s eastern flank and support for Ukraine.

With Reuters and European Pravda

Caption: L-R) Party leaders Rob Jetten (D66), Geert Wilders (PVV), Caroline van der Plas (BBB), Dilan Yesilgoz (VVD), Jimmy Dijk (SP), Eddy van Hijum (NSC), and Frans Timmermans (GroenLinks-PvdA) after the NOS Final Debate in the Hague, Netherlands, 28 October 2025, on the eve of the Dutch parliamentary elections. EPA/REMKO DE WAAL