EditDemilitarizing Russia: can Japan’s postwar pacifism offer a blueprint amid its expanding militarism?
A think tank offers a view about the future amid Russia's economic isolation, societal polarization, and a militaristic ethos that has defined the Putin era
In the shadow of Russia’s ongoing aggression in Ukraine and a deeply entrenched militarised political culture, a policy paper from the Free Russia Foundation Think Tank challenges conventional wisdom by urging a future democratic Russia to draw lessons from Asian democracies.
Vladimir Putin has built a formidable war machine to sustain Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, one that has become so deeply entrenched in the country’s economy, military structure, and political system that he appears unable – or unwilling – to stop it. Politicians and scientists are scratching their heads exploring scenarios for ending or containing the war that avoid catastrophic escalation.
Published on 12 January by Alexandra Garmazhapova, “What Russia of the Future Should Learn from Asian Democracies” posits that even if peace were achieved in Ukraine, Russia’s core affliction – its aggressive militarism and imperial mindset – would persist without radical reforms. The report spotlights Japan’s postwar demilitarization as a potential model, but it tempers optimism with critiques, questioning whether this blueprint is truly adaptable given Russia’s unique scale and unresolved legacies.
The paper arrives amid Russia’s economic isolation, societal polarization, and a militaristic ethos that has defined the Putin era. It argues that Russia’s vast, multi-ethnic territory – bridging Europe and Asia – demands a different approach, rejecting Eurocentric models in favour of insights from Japan and South Korea.
These nations, it notes, rose from devastation through moral reckoning, institutional safeguards, and strategic restraint. Yet the focus on militarism is central: Russia is depicted as an “empire that threatens its neighbors and treats them as colonial subordinates,” relying on “military power, propaganda, and repression” rather than innovation or civic trust.
Japan’s transformation post-World War II stands as the paper’s prime exemplar for overcoming militarism. Defeated and occupied in 1945, Japan enshrined pacifism in Article 9 of its U.S.-drafted constitution: “Aspiring sincerely to an international peace based on justice and order, the Japanese people forever renounce war as a sovereign right of the nation and the threat or use of force as a means of settling international disputes… land, sea, and air forces, as well as other war potential, will never be maintained.”
This renunciation of aggressive imperialism allowed Japan to cap defence spending at under 1% of GDP for decades, leaning on U.S. security guarantees. As former Japanese Foreign Minister Taro Kono explains in the report: “We didn’t spend much money on defence or the military. We were able to direct our resources to the economy.”
Freed from militaristic burdens, Japan channelled efforts into reconstruction via the Ministry of International Trade and Industry (MITI), subsidizing exports in automobiles and electronics, fostering behemoths like Toyota and Sony. High savings, an educated workforce, and cultural interdependence drove 9-10% annual growth in the 1950s and 1960s.
The contrast with Russia is stark. While Japan pivoted from expansionist militarism to pacifism, enabling prosperity, Russia’s model under Putin emphasizes military dominance and resource extraction, leading to corruption and stagnation. Vladimir Milov, Vice-President of the Free Russia Foundation, critiques this as a “slippery slope of protectionism and government-sponsored, inefficient and corrupt import substitution.”
South Korea complements the narrative, having shed authoritarian militarism through bottom-up protests against regimes like Chun Doo-hwan’s, which suppressed the 1980 Gwangju Uprising with brutal force. International pressure, including ahead of the 1988 Seoul Olympics, forced democratic concessions, as academic Soyoung Kwon notes: “International pressure certainly contributed to the success of Korea’s democratization.” South Korea’s export-driven growth and soft power – via K-pop and films like “Parasite” – demonstrate influence without belligerence, unlike North Korea’s militarized isolation.
Yet the paper injects scepticism: Is Japan’s demilitarization truly a blueprint for Russia? It highlights pitfalls in Japan’s “incomplete reckoning” with imperial crimes, such as wartime atrocities in Korea and China. Partial truth-telling could perpetuate militaristic resentments, especially in a multi-ethnic state with histories of repression against groups like Tatars or Indigenous Siberians.
The report sceptically notes that Japan’s model isn’t universal, citing its “lost decades” of economic rigidity and absence of a formal Truth Commission, which might leave Russia’s persistent militarism unaddressed even after peace.
To adapt these lessons, the paper outlines a phased roadmap emphasizing demilitarization. In the first 100 days of transition: freeze offensive deployments, publish a defence-spending cap, repeal censorship, and establish a truth and reconciliation commission to expose Soviet-era and recent atrocities.
Over two years: Enact judicial reforms for independence, codify protest rights with oversight, and tie industrial subsidies to export performance.
Longer-term: Provide reparations, decentralize fiscal power (reducing federal transfers to 65%), invest in human capital like STEM and minority languages, and leverage cultural exports for soft power. Federalism is key to managing ethnic diversity, with campaign finance reforms to curb corruption.
In conclusion, the report envisions a Russia grounded in law and talent, not conquest, but stresses adaptation over imitation.
History never repeats itself.
Caption: Russian President Vladimir Putin (C) attends the Christmas Service at a Church in Moscow region, Russia, 7 January 2026. The Russian Orthodox church celebrates Christmas on 07 January according to the Julian calendar. EPA/VYACHESLAV PROKOFYEV/SPUTNIK/KREMLIN POOL
Updated: January 23, 2026 - 12:45
