Costa courts Kazakhstan: Europe’s quiet pivot to Central Asia takes centre stage in Astana

On a crisp December day in the Kazakh capital, European Council President António Costa shook hands with President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev beneath the golden eagles of the Akorda palace, marking a milestone that few in Europe noticed ten years ago but everyone is watching now: the tenth anniversary of the EU’s first-ever Enhanced Partnership and Cooperation Agreement with a Central Asian state.

The choreography was warm – Costa received Kazakhstan’s highest honour for foreigners, the Order of Dostyk – but the subtext was unmistakably strategic. With Russia’s war in Ukraine grinding into its fourth year, Western sanctions biting harder, and Donald Trump’s return to the White House casting long shadows over transatlantic reliability, Brussels is quietly putting flesh on its partnership across the Caspian.

The numbers tell part of the story. The EU is already Kazakhstan’s biggest trade partner (€50 billion in 2024). Astana now supplies 11 % of Europe’s crude oil and 21 % of its uranium — figures that have taken on existential weight as the continent scrambles to wean itself off Russian energy. More than 4,000 European companies, from TotalEnergies to Siemens, have planted flags here, drawn by reforms that Tokayev likes to call the “new Kazakhstan”.

Yet the real prize lies beyond hydrocarbons. Costa and Tokayev spent much of their meeting talking about the Trans-Caspian International Transport Route – the EU’s favoured “Middle Corridor” that threads from China through Kazakhstan, under the Caspian, across Azerbaijan and Georgia, and into Europe without touching Russian soil. Cargo on the route jumped 64 % last year; Brussels has pledged €10 billion from its Global Gateway fund to make it faster and cheaper still. For a Europe desperate to diversify supply chains and bypass both Moscow and the increasingly volatile Red Sea, Kazakhstan is no longer exotic — it is essential.

The timing of Costa’s visit, his first official trip to Central Asia since taking office, was hardly accidental. Just days earlier, the EU launched formal negotiations on visa facilitation with Astana – a concrete gesture that travel, study, and business between the two sides is about to get a lot easier. Behind closed doors, officials speak of critical raw materials (Kazakhstan sits on vast reserves of the rare earths and battery metals Europe needs for its green transition), green hydrogen pilots, and a new laboratory in Astana that will let the country analyse and add value to its minerals at home instead of shipping them raw to China.

Both leaders were careful to frame the relationship in the language of multilateralism and the UN Charter – diplomatic code, in part, for Kazakhstan’s delicate tightrope walk between Russia, China, and the West. Costa praised Tokayev’s mediation efforts between Armenia and Azerbaijan, noting that peace in the South Caucasus is a prerequisite for the Middle Corridor to reach its full potential.

Neither man mentioned Ukraine by name more than necessary, but the message was clear: in a fracturing world, Kazakhstan’s stability and connectivity are European interests.

As Costa departed, his message rang clear: “Together, we can turn shared challenges into shared opportunities.” With €12 billion more in Global Gateway funds for regional projects, the next decade promises implementation over rhetoric – modern infrastructure, innovation hubs, and fortified security. For Kazakhstan and the EU, this isn’t just partnership; it’s a blueprint for a multipolar world’s sustainable future.

With Council press releases, reporting by The Astana Times.

Caption: President of the European Council António Costa and President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev. Photo credit: Akorda