Conservative Nawrocki’s Polish victory signals shifts in EU and NATO dynamics

In a nail-biting finish, Karol Nawrocki, a 42-year-old conservative historian and former amateur boxer, won Poland’s presidential runoff election on 1 June, with 50.89% of the vote, narrowly defeating liberal Warsaw Mayor Rafał Trzaskowski, who garnered 49.11%, according to final counts.

The razor-thin margin, which kept Poland on edge through the night, underscored deep ideological divides in this NATO and EU member state on Europe’s eastern flank.

Initial exit polls suggested a Trzaskowski win, but updated data reversed the outcome, delivering a victory to Nawrocki, backed by the nationalist Law and Justice (PiS) party. This result, watched closely by Ukraine, Russia, the United States, and the EU, carries significant implications for European policy, Ukraine’s security, and transatlantic relations, while aligning with U.S. President Donald Trump’s political preferences.

Nawrocki campaigned on a “Poland first” platform, prioritising national economic and social policies over foreign interests, including Ukrainian refugees, and framing the election as a referendum on Prime Minister Donald Tusk’s pro-EU coalition government, which ousted PiS in 2023.

While Poland’s parliament holds primary power, the president’s veto authority, wielded frequently by outgoing PiS-aligned President Andrzej Duda, equips Nawrocki to obstruct Tusk’s reforms, such as judicial independence and abortion law liberalization, which Trzaskowski championed.

Despite a contentious campaign marred by allegations of Nawrocki’s past ties to football hooliganism and a questionable apartment deal – claims he dismissed as politically motivated – his victory signals a resurgence of PiS’s nationalist agenda, bolstered by a first-round surge in far-right support that hinted at a fracturing KO-PiS political duopoly.

Impact on EU policy

Nawrocki’s eurosceptic stance, echoing PiS’s clashes with Brussels over rule-of-law issues, threatens to strain Poland’s EU relations. His alignment with Hungary’s Viktor Orbán and Slovakia’s Robert Fico could embolden a Central European nationalist bloc, potentially undermining EU cohesion on climate goals, migration, and judicial standards.

As Reuters noted, Nawrocki’s win may boost Czech eurosceptic Andrej Babiš ahead of October 2025 elections, further challenging the EU’s liberal mainstream.

Tusk’s coalition, reliant on EU funds to reverse PiS-era backsliding, faces veto risks, stalling reforms and deepening Poland’s rift with Brussels, as highlighted by X posts warning of a “historic defeat for the EU.”

Impact on Ukraine

Both candidates supported Poland’s robust aid to Ukraine against Russia’s three-year invasion, but Nawrocki’s opposition to Ukraine’s NATO membership, citing risks of war with Moscow, diverges sharply from Trzaskowski’s pro-NATO stance, seen as vital for Poland’s security.

Nawrocki’s position aligns with Russia’s demand to halt NATO’s eastward expansion, a key sticking point in ongoing Russia-Ukraine peace talks in Istanbul, which lack progress due to Putin’s territorial demands and Trump’s inconsistent mediation.

Ukraine, reliant on Polish military and humanitarian support, may face a less enthusiastic ally in Nawrocki, whose rhetoric has criticized Kyiv’s gratitude, echoing Trump’s tone.

Impact on transatlantic relations

Nawrocki’s win strengthens ties with Trump’s administration, which endorsed him through U.S. Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem’s speech at a May 2025 CPAC event in Poland and a White House meeting with Trump himself.

Poland’s presidential race heats up as Nawrocki visits the White House

His “Trump-style nationalism,” emphasising traditional values and U.S. alignment over Brussels, resonates with Trump’s push for Europe to boost defence spending, a demand both candidates endorsed. However, Nawrocki’s NATO scepticism could complicate transatlantic security coordination. The victory may embolden Trump’s narrative of a global conservative resurgence, but it risks alienating pro-EU NATO allies like Germany and France, potentially fragmenting the alliance’s response to Russia.

Nawrocki’s victory is a clear win for Trump. His administration’s backing, from Noem’s endorsement to Trump’s personal engagement, paid off, reinforcing his influence in European politics. Trump has already benefitted from a Polish president sceptical of EU bureaucracy and open to prioritising bilateral U.S.-Poland ties, especially on defence, where Nawrocki’s commitment to increased spending aligns with Trump’s demands.

Caption: Polish presidential candidate Karol Nawrocki (R) with his wife Marta Nawrocka (L) during the presidential election night in Warsaw, Poland, 1 June 2025. According to an exit poll conducted by Ipsos for TVN24, TVP and Polsat News, Rafal Trzaskowski won 50.3 percent, while Karol Nawrocki won 49.7 percent. [EPA-EFE/Leszek Szymanski]