China as the indispensable power broker: Putin follows Trump to Beijing

In a striking display of Beijing’s growing centrality in world affairs, Russian President Vladimir Putin met with Chinese leader Xi Jinping on Wednesday – just days after U.S. President Donald Trump’s own high-profile visit to the Chinese capital. The back-to-back summits underscore a harsh geopolitical reality: whether resolving conflicts in Ukraine or the Middle East, major powers are turning to China not out of ideological alignment, but because it holds the economic and diplomatic leverage to influence outcomes.

A tale of two visits, one common destination

Trump’s trip, delayed by the Iran conflict, was characterised by elaborate pageantry – gardens, temples, and Boeing deals – but yielded limited concrete breakthroughs on thorny issues like trade imbalances, Taiwan, or de-escalating the U.S.-Israeli confrontation with Iran. Putin’s follow-up visit, by contrast, carries a more urgent tone for Moscow. Arriving in a position of relative weakness after years of sanctions and battlefield attrition in Ukraine, the Russian leader seeks to solidify an already deep “no-limits” partnership that has become a lifeline for his economy and war machine.

The optics favor Xi. Chinese state media framed the dual visits as validation of Beijing’s status in a multipolar world, where even adversaries of each other flock to the same table. Putin and Xi, calling each other “old friends,” engaged in intimate “tea diplomacy” – a more personal setting than Trump’s more formal encounters – while signing dozens of agreements, including a lengthy joint statement on partnership and discussions on the Power of Siberia 2 gas pipeline.

“Russia is in China’s pocket”

Analytically, China’s position is uniquely advantageous. It is Russia’s largest trading partner and buyer of nearly half its oil exports, providing critical revenue that sustains Putin’s regime and Ukraine campaign. Chinese components are essential for Russian weaponry, and consumer goods fill gaps left by Western sanctions. Moscow has few alternatives; as one analyst noted, Russia is increasingly “in China’s pocket,” with deals inevitably tilted toward Beijing’s terms.

For Trump, China represents both a rival and a necessary interlocutor. Amid the Iran conflict and its ripple effects on global energy and shipping, U.S. officials appear to view Beijing as key to any durable de-escalation – whether through pressure on Tehran or stabilizing oil markets. Trump’s agricultural and aircraft purchases announced during his visit reflect the familiar transactional approach, but the timing of Putin’s arrival highlights how China can hedge its bets, engaging Washington on trade while deepening energy and strategic ties with Moscow.

This dynamic reveals deeper structural shifts. The “unilateral hegemony” Xi referenced in his remarks with Putin signals Beijing’s preference for a fragmented order where it acts as the indispensable middleman. By maintaining strategic ambiguity – supporting Russia economically without fully endorsing the Ukraine war, and talking tough with Trump while striking deals – Xi maximizes influence over both conflicts the U.S. and the Russian presidents started themselves.

Risks and realities

Yet China’s balancing act is not without limits. Prolonged wars strain global supply chains and energy security, areas where Beijing has vested interests in stability. Over-reliance on Russian resources could expose China to secondary sanctions or supply disruptions, while excessive closeness to Putin risks alienating the West. For now, however, the visits illustrate Beijing’s success in positioning itself as the pivot: both Trump and Putin need something from Xi more than he needs from them.

In an era of great-power competition, this episode in Beijing may foreshadow a future where resolving major conflicts increasingly runs through China – whether the architects of those conflicts like it or not.

Caption: Russian President Vladimir Putin (R) and Chinese President Xi Jinping (L) inspect an honor guard during a welcoming ceremony at the Great Hall of the People in Beijing, China, 20 May 2026. EPA/Maxim Shemetov / POOL