Centrist’s narrow lead sets stage for high-stakes Polish presidential runoff

Poland’s presidential election delivered a razor-thin victory for centrist Rafał Trzaskowski of the Civic Coalition (KO), who secured 31.2% of the vote against 29.7% for nationalist Law and Justice (PiS) candidate Karol Nawrocki, according to an Ipsos late poll.

The unexpectedly tight margin – far narrower than the 4-7% predicted by pre-election surveys – sets up a critical 1 June runoff that will determine whether Poland remains a pro-European bulwark or veers toward Eurosceptic nationalism aligned with U.S. President Donald Trump.

Trzaskowski’s slim lead, coupled with a record 21% combined vote for far-right candidates, signals a polarized electorate and augurs a fierce battle ahead. For the European Union, a Nawrocki victory could fracture its eastern flank, embolden illiberal forces, and undermine its geopolitical leverage at a time of rising global uncertainty.

The EU faces existential risks if Nawrocki prevails. Poland, a linchpin of the bloc’s eastern defences with a 530-kilometer border with Ukraine, has been a steadfast supporter of Kyiv, providing €3 billion in military aid and hosting 1.5 million refugees.

While Nawrocki supports Ukraine aid, his campaign’s anti-Ukrainian undertones – criticizing Kyiv over historical grievances and prioritizing Polish citizens in public services – could strain bilateral ties and weaken the EU’s unified stance against Russia. His alignment with PiS’s Eurosceptic agenda, which resists Brussels’ rule-of-law mandates and climate policies, mirrors Hungary’s Viktor Orbán and risks creating a Warsaw-Budapest axis that could paralyse EU decision-making.

“A Nawrocki win would amplify the nationalist bloc within the EU, potentially derailing sanctions on Russia and climate goals,” said political scientist Agnieszka Legucka. This could embolden populist movements in France, Italy, and Austria, threatening the EU’s cohesion as it navigates a potential reduction in U.S. support under Trump.

Economically, a conservative victory could disrupt Poland’s access to €137 billion in EU funds, frozen since 2021 over PiS’s judicial reforms that critics say undermined court independence. Poland’s 3.2% annual GDP growth depends on these funds for infrastructure, digitalisation, and green energy transitions.

Nawrocki’s pledge to prioritize coal and resist EU emissions targets could escalate tensions with Brussels, delaying Poland’s 2030 climate commitments and deterring foreign investors. The zloty, already down 1.8% since early May, faces further pressure, with analysts warning of capital flight if PiS consolidates power. A Nawrocki presidency could also exacerbate Poland’s brain drain, as young, urban voters—70% of whom backed Trzaskowski—consider leaving amid fears of democratic erosion, mirroring trends in Hungary.

Democratically, the stakes are profound. Poland’s president wields veto power over legislation, appoints judges, and shapes foreign policy. A Nawrocki win would perpetuate the impasse that has stalled Prime Minister Donald Tusk’s reforms since 2023, as outgoing PiS-ally President Andrzej Duda consistently blocked efforts to restore judicial independence.

Nawrocki’s campaign, despite denying allegations of personal misconduct, has leaned into PiS’s narrative of resisting “liberal elites” and EU “overreach,” raising fears of further media crackdowns and court politicization. The strong far-right showing—Slawomir Mentzen and Grzegorz Braun’s 21% combined vote, including Braun’s 6.3% after his antisemitic stunt in 2023—signals a growing illiberal base that could push Nawrocki to adopt harsher policies to secure their support. The EU’s ability to enforce democratic standards via Article 7 could falter, risking a broader retreat from liberal values across Central Europe.

Trzaskowski, by contrast, offers a lifeline for the EU. His pledge to cement Poland’s role in European policymaking aligns with Brussels’ priorities: supporting Ukraine, advancing EU enlargement, and unlocking frozen funds by reversing PiS’s judicial changes. His urban base and 66.8% turnout reflect a mobilized pro-EU electorate, but the far-right’s surge and Nawrocki’s rural strongholds – where 60% voted PiS in the first round -pose formidable challenges.

An Opinia24 poll projects a neck-and-neck runoff, with Trzaskowski at 46% and Nawrocki at 44%. “The far-right’s voters will decide this,” said Stanley Bill, Professor of Polish Studies at Cambridge, noting Mentzen’s refusal to endorse Nawrocki outright.

The EU watches anxiously: a Trzaskowski victory would reinforce Poland’s role as a stabilizing force, but a Nawrocki win could unravel the bloc’s eastern cohesion, empower Trump-aligned nationalists, and test its resilience against populism. As Trzaskowski told supporters, “It’s close, but we’re going for victory.” The outcome will reverberate far beyond Poland’s borders.

With Reuters.

Caption: Karol Nawrocki (L), independent candidate in the 2025 presidential elections supported by Law and Justice Party (PiS), gestures with his wife Marta Nawrocka during the presidential election night in Gdansk, Poland, 18 May 2025. A second round of presidential elections will be held on 01 June. [EPA-EFE/Adam Warzawa]