EditCanada and Australia’s elections: a shared backlash against Trump’s shadow
This development presents an opportunity for the EU to strengthen ties with Ottawa and Canberra
In a striking parallel, the recent elections in Canada and Australia have seen centre-left governments defy expectations, staging dramatic comebacks against once-dominant conservative oppositions.
On 28 April, Canada’s Liberal Party, led by Prime Minister Mark Carney, secured a strong minority government, winning 169 seats to the Conservatives’ 144, overturning a 20-point polling deficit from January.
Similarly, on 3 May, Australia’s Labor Party, under Prime Minister Anthony Albanese, clinched a historic second term, with Albanese claiming a majority government as conservative leader Peter Dutton conceded defeat and his own seat.
Both victories, hailed as remarkable turnarounds, were fuelled by voter unease over the influence of U.S. President Donald Trump, whose aggressive tariffs, provocative rhetoric, and transactional foreign policy galvanised electorates to rally behind anti-Trump candidates who projected competence and national pride.
In Canada, the Liberal resurgence was sparked by Trump’s trade war and inflammatory comments about annexing Canada as the “51st state.”
After imposing 25% tariffs on Canadian imports on 4 March, Trump’s actions sent markets into turmoil and stoked fears of economic devastation in a nation heavily reliant on U.S. trade. His taunts, reiterated in a Truth Social post on election day, 28 April, urging Canadians to vote as a verdict on him, backfired spectacularly.
Carney, a former Bank of England governor, capitalized on this, framing the election as a defence of Canadian sovereignty. “President Trump is trying to break us so that America can own us,” Carney declared in his victory speech, vowing defiance.
Polls showed 39% of Canadians cited Trump as a top concern, second only to cost of living, with 45% saying his actions significantly influenced their vote. This nationalism, coupled with Carney’s economic credentials, drew left-leaning voters from the New Democratic Party and Bloc Québécois, whose support collapsed, ensuring a Liberal surge. Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre, whose “Canada First” rhetoric and Trump-like populism had earlier resonated, was tainted by perceived proximity to Trump, losing his own seat as voters rejected his brand.
Australia’s election followed a similar script, with Trump’s global tariffs, including a 10% levy on Australian imports, eroding trust in the U.S. to a historic low of 36%, according to a March 2025 Lowy Institute poll.
The conservative Coalition, led by Dutton, had led polls in 2024, buoyed by public frustration over soaring housing costs and inflation. Yet, Trump’s return to power in January 2025 shifted the narrative. His tariffs, which sparked global financial chaos, and his disregard for alliances alarmed Australians, who value “mateship” and loyalty in foreign relations. Albanese seized the moment, positioning himself as a staunch defender of Australia’s interests.
“The two conversations I’ve had with President Trump are ones in which I stand up for Australia’s national interest,” he told reporters, contrasting his resolve with Dutton’s early endorsement of Trump’s victory. A Resolve Political Monitor poll found one-third of voters were less likely to support Dutton due to his Trump associations, with critics dubbing him “Temu Trump” for mimicking Trump’s anti-“woke” and deregulation agenda.
Labor’s campaign, bolstered by Albanese’s focus on cost-of-living relief and AUKUS security ties, resonated with swing voters, particularly Millennials and Gen Z, who outnumbered older demographics and favoured progressive policies.
The anti-Trump sentiment was pivotal in both nations. In Canada, Poilievre’s alignment with Trump’s style—evident in his support for the 2022 anti-vaccine trucker convoy and slogans like “fake news”—alienated moderates, especially as Carney’s Liberals painted him as a “little version of Trump.” In Australia, Dutton’s appointment of a shadow minister for government efficiency, inspired by Trump’s Elon Musk-led DOGE initiative, and a coalition member’s “Make Australia Great Again” gaffe, cemented his Trumpian image, repelling centrists.
In both countries, Trump’s policies—tariffs, threats to alliances, and economic disruption—reframed elections as referendums on national identity, driving voters to Carney and Albanese, who embodied stability and defiance against an unpredictable U.S. leader.
The election results in Canada and Australia present an obvious opportunity for the European Union to strengthen ties with these like-minded partners, potentially offsetting the weakening of EU-US relations under Trump’s presidency. Carney’s victory strengthens the EU-Canada Comprehensive Economic and Trade Agreement (CETA), which has boosted bilateral trade by 65% since 2017. Australia, under Albanese, also offers potential, with its shared commitment to climate goals and security partnerships like AUKUS, which includes the UK, an EU ally.
Caption: Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese, Partner Jodie Haydon and son Nathan acknowledge the crowd at the Labor Election Night function for the 2025 Federal Election in Sydney, Australia, 3 May 2025. [EPA-EFE/LUKAS COCH]
Sources: Reuters, NBC News, The Washington Post, CBC News, Council on Foreign Relations, CNN, Atlantic Council
Updated: May 3, 2025 - 14:30
