Can Europe fill the vacuum left after the closure of USAID?

The closure of the United States Agency for International Development (USAID) marks a decisive turning point in global development policy, with direct consequences for Europe’s neighbourhood. For the European Union, this moment creates not only a strategic challenge, but also a rare opportunity to strengthen democratic resilience and reinforce its leadership in both the Western Balkans and the Eastern Partnership, Brandon Bohrn from the Bertelsmann Stiftungs Europe Program, writes in his study.

Trump’s decision to shutter the U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID) in early 2025 has slashed global humanitarian programs by 92%, drawing widespread condemnation for endangering millions amid crises like Ukraine’s war and African famines.

With Washington’s main aid agency dismantled and “most democracy and governance programmes halted”, the Western Balkans and Eastern Partnership regions – home to eight EU candidate countries – now face what the report calls “widening gaps in democracy support, civic resilience and institutional capacity”.

For the EU, the implications are immediate and strategic. “Europe cannot treat this as a temporary disruption”, the report says, warning that the withdrawal of U.S. engagement removes “a key pillar of democratic assistance at a moment when authoritarian and illiberal influence is rising”.

The Western Balkans (Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Kosovo, Montenegro, North Macedonia, Serbia) and the Eastern Partnership (Ukraine, Moldova, Georgia, Armenia, Azerbaijan, Belarus (the participation of the latter effectively suspended) regions have for years relied heavily on U.S. support for democratic institutions, civil society, independent media and governance reforms. The sudden disappearance of this support risks weakening already fragile democratic structures at a time of heightened geopolitical competition.

In 2023, U.S. total foreign assistance disbursed to these two regions totaled USD 12.4 billion in bilateral assistance. By early 2025, of 258 USAID programs formerly active under the Europe and Eurasia Bureau, only 11 were maintained in Ukraine and just one in Bosnia and Herzegovina. The sharpest impact of USAID’s dismantling is in democracy and governance programing – sectors critical to the EU’s enlargement policy and long-term neighborhood stability, Brandon Bohrn assumes.

Rather than waiting for a possible future return of the U.S. engagement, the report argues that the EU must assume that the shift is structural. “Europe must adjust its strategy to a long-term decline in U.S. democracy and governance engagement”, it states, describing the change as a “generational U.S. policy shift”.

This reassessment comes at a delicate political moment. Several countries in both the Western Balkans and Eastern Partnership remain locked in difficult accession processes, while domestic democratic backsliding, media pressure and weak institutional checks remain persistent problems.

Against this backdrop, the report outlines three strategic priorities for Europe.

First, it calls for a strategic recalibration in response to the changing U.S. role. According to the author, the EU must accept that Washington will no longer play the same leadership role in democracy assistance that it did over the past three decades. “Europe must recalibrate for a generational U.S. policy shift,” the report says, arguing that this requires more than incremental adjustments to existing programmes.

Second, the policy brief highlights what it calls “political and delivery gaps” in current EU support. Fragmentation among European institutions, national governments and implementing agencies continues to weaken the overall impact of democracy support. To address this, the report urges a stronger and more coordinated “Team Europe” approach that would align political backing, financing and implementation on the ground.

“A unified Team Europe approach is needed to overcome fragmentation and deliver support more effectively,” the report says, pointing to the persistent disconnect between policy ambitions and practical delivery.

Third, the report places particular emphasis on democratic resilience. With U.S. funding for independent media, civil society organisations and watchdog groups now largely frozen, the brief calls on Europe to step in with sustained, long-term backing. “Europe should provide sustained support to independent media, civil society and watchdogs to safeguard democracy in the WB6 and EaP,” the report says.

The author argues that this support must go beyond short-term project funding and focus instead on long-term institutional survival in increasingly hostile political environments.

At the same time, the report stresses that Europe is not starting from scratch. Over the past years, the EU and its member states have expanded their role as the main providers of energy security and macro-financial assistance in both regions. The challenge now is to match that economic and energy leadership with a comparable level of political and democratic engagement.

“By coupling their leadership in energy and economic assistance with renewed support for governance and institutional resilience, Europe can collectively bridge the transatlantic gap and reaffirm its leadership in the Western Balkans and Eastern Partnership,” the report concludes.

The underlying message is that the vacuum left by the United States will not remain empty for long. Without a stronger European role, the author warns, the space once occupied by Western democracy support risks being filled by actors whose interests run counter to EU values and enlargement objectives. “The U.S. withdrawal has opened space for authoritarian competitors – notably Russia and China – to exploit economic and informational dependencies across Europe”, the report states, adding that “the core risk is not that Russia or China will outspend the EU, but that they will weaponize economic and informational dependencies to erode trust, weaken institutions and empower illiberal actors”.

For the EU, the shutdown of USAID therefore represents more than a technical disruption in the international aid architecture. It is, the report suggests, a defining test of Europe’s willingness to translate its geopolitical ambition into sustained political leadership in its own neighbourhood.

Caption: Supporters of US Agency for International Development (USAID) employees rally outside the headquarters as workers terminated or placed on leave retrieve their personal belongings in Washington, DC, USA, 27 February 2025. USAID workers who were fired or placed on leave have been given 15 minutes to retrieve personal belongings from their former offices. EPA/SHAWN THEW