Bulgaria’s snap elections: Radev leads polls – but who will he partner with?

Bulgaria heads to its eighth parliamentary election in five years on 19 April, after protests over budget failures, corruption allegations, and political gridlock forced the previous government’s resignation in late 2025. The big question now is not whether former President Rumen Radev will dominate the vote – he leads all surveys – but which political forces he will choose as allies to form a government.

Radev resigned from the presidency in January 2026 to enter active politics. On 2 March, he registered a coalition called Progressive Bulgaria, uniting three center-left groups: Our People Movement, the Social Democratic Party, and the Socialdemocrats movement. Polls show strong early support: Alpha Research (late February-early March) gave it 32.6% among decided voters, Gallup International around 31%.

This puts Progressive Bulgaria well ahead of GERB-SDS (around 19–20%), PP-DB (11–13%), DPS-New Beginning (9–11%), and Vazrazhdane (Revival) (6–7%). Five parties are likely to enter parliament, but no one has a majority alone.

Radev has deliberately kept his coalition preferences under wraps, giving no public hints about favoured partners. This strategy preserves his freedom to decide after the vote, framing any choice as driven by “necessity and stability” rather than pre-election deals.

The firmest exclusion is DPS-New Beginning, led by Delyan Peevski (sanctioned under the U.S. Magnitsky Act for corruption). Analysts agree: Peevski’s party – long seen as the face of the “oligarchic model” – will stay in opposition. Progressive Bulgaria aims to dismantle that system, leaving no room for its embodiment.

Other forces remain in play, with varying probabilities: GERB-SDS (led by Boyko Borissov) emerges as a frequently discussed option. Combined, Progressive Bulgaria (32%) and GERB (19–20%) could reach an absolute majority. Political commentator Andrei Raychev argues ideological common alignment on Ukraine, migration, and the Green Deal makes this more realistic than partnering with PP-DB. Political scientist Dimitar Vatsov calls it a potential “clientelist coalition,” given shared anti-liberal leanings. SDS co-leader Rumen Hristov has endorsed a “first-plus-second” alliance for stability. Borissov, facing a real challenge to GERB’s long dominance, appears open to cooperation to regain legitimacy and distance himself from Peevski.

PP-DB (We Continue the Change–Democratic Bulgaria) shares some short-term goals with Radev, like fair elections and machine voting. Yet they demand strict conditions: firm opposition to the “Peevski-Borissov model” and clear pro-European orientation (per Yes, Bulgaria’s Ivaylo Mirchev). PP leader Asen Vassilev sees possible collaboration on judicial reform and electing a new Supreme Judicial Council (SJC), needing 160 MPs for a qualified majority. However, Radev’s former chief of staff Ivo Hristov ruled out PP-DB as a desired partner on national TV, signalling distance.

Vazrazhdane aligns with Radev on euroskepticism, partial pro-Russian views, Green Deal opposition, and migration. It could join tactical majorities for specific issues but not long-term coalitions—mirroring its past informal support for GERB.

BSP (Bulgarian Socialist Party, running as United Left) has historical ties: it backed Radev’s 2016 presidential run, and current leader Krum Zarkov was until recently his advisor. Shared stances (e.g., rejecting the Istanbul Convention, limiting aid to Ukraine) once overlapped. But Radev has built a broader base beyond the weakened traditional left. If BSP barely crosses 4%, it may wait on the bench; its narrow appeal limits its value to a project chasing diverse voters.

Progressive Bulgaria draws from everywhere: non-voters, ex-BSP and Revival supporters, fragments from ITN, MECH, Velichie, and even periphery voters from GERB, PP-DB, and DPS. Alpha Research notes nearly every party loses votes to Radev’s rise.

Bulgaria’s judiciary adds urgency. SJC mandates expired years ago; the Inspectorate overstays (ruled EU-incompatible); acting Prosecutor General Borislav Sarafov remains “temporary” for three years, enabling political leverage. A new SJC vote could finally replace him – but requires broad support.

As 19 April approaches, Bulgarians await Radev’s post-election moves. He promises governance with clear rules and an end to oligarchic control. Whether he delivers – starting by sidelining Peevski – depends on coalition choices that balance his broad appeal, ideological fits, and the need for stability amid endless crises.

A longer original version of this analysis in Bulgarian can be found here.

Caption: A man wearing the Bulgarian flag on his shoulders holds a placard reading ‘Radev Prime Minister’ during the formal handover ceremony between outgoing Bulgarian President Rumen Radev and Vice President Iliana Iotova in Sofia, Bulgaria, on 23 January 2026. EPA/BORISLAV TROSHEV