Bulgarian intelligence warns of Russian threat to Moldova, Georgia and ‘possibly Armenia’

Russia could launch new military offensives in Eastern Europe and the South Caucasus, regardless of the outcome of its war in Ukraine, Bulgaria’s military intelligence warned in its latest annual report, echoing growing concern across NATO’s eastern flank.

The document pointed to Moldova, Georgia and “possibly Armenia” as the most likely targets of a renewed Russian military push aimed at restoring Moscow’s influence in the post-Soviet space.

Moldova faces imminent Russian hybrid threats due to its EU ambitions and volatility in the breakaway Transnistria region, Georgia contends with Russian-backed political erosion and occupied territories, and Armenia risks retaliation for its Western shift.

“Regardless of the outcome of the war (in Ukraine), Moscow is expected to continue intensifying its aggressive policy. Currently, there is no direct military threat to other countries in the region. However, unless the Kremlin changes course, the risk of a new armed conflict in the medium term remains high,” the intelligence report stated.

Bulgarian security services, including the State Agency for National Security (SANS), have long identified Russia as the primary source of destabilisation in Europe. Until now, the focus has been on hybrid warfare: cyberattacks, disinformation campaigns, and efforts to sow division within EU and NATO member states. The military intelligence’s latest warning marks a notable shift, explicitly raising the possibility of direct military actions.

According to the report, President Vladimir Putin’s top priority in potential negotiations with Kyiv is not a peaceful settlement but “the consolidation of control over what the Kremlin considers the Russian sphere of influence in the post-Soviet space”.

Ukraine, the report continued, is seen as another objective — one that must be forcibly subjugated, left dependent and stripped of its independent identity, governance, and military sovereignty.

The military intelligence also underscored Russia’s continued efforts to limit freedom of navigation and airspace use in the Black Sea, despite its constrained naval capacity since the onset of the war. The designation of prolonged danger zones is seen as a tactic to assert control and discourage Western presence in the region.

While the Baltic and Nordic states focus on rising tensions near Russia’s western borders – especially Lithuania, which lies between the Russian exclave of Kaliningrad and Belarus – Bulgaria’s attention remains fixed on the Balkans and Southern Europe.

Bulgarian authorities have expressed concern that Kremlin tactics are heightening division and instability in the Western Balkans, at a time when countries in the region are openly striving for faster EU integration.

“In 2024, the global security environment was marked by an intensified militarisation of international relations, the expansion of ongoing crises, and the weakening of international legal institutions. The information and cyber domains were actively employed to manipulate public perceptions and advance strategic objectives,” the report added. Hybrid threats targeting air and maritime routes, critical infrastructure, and energy connectivity have become increasingly frequent.

Few of the report’s conclusions are surprising. Bulgarian intelligence services – SANS and the military intelligence – have faced criticism in recent years for their perceived leniency toward Russian influence and espionage activities, despite Bulgaria’s NATO and EU membership. This leniency stems from a combination of historical ties, domestic political dynamics, and operational shortcomings, which have allowed Russia to maintain significant leverage in Bulgaria.

Bulgaria has been a significant target of Russian hybrid warfare, particularly since 2011, with a series of explosions at munitions facilities and a high-profile assassination attempt on arms dealer Emilian Gebrev in 2015. These actions, attributed to Russia’s GRU (military intelligence) Unit 29155, reflect Moscow’s efforts to disrupt Bulgaria’s arms exports to Ukraine, undermine its NATO and EU alignment, and destabilise the region.

Caption: A US army soldier operates a Skydio X2 drone during the Combined Resolve 25-1 military exercise in Hohenfels, Germany, 3 February 2025. The Combined Resolve 25-1, a US Army exercise with NATO Allies and partners, was held from from 17 January to 16 February 2025. Allied and partner nations participating in Combined Resolve 25-1 are Albania, Armenia, Belgium, Georgia, Greece, Italy, Kosovo, Lithuania, Moldova, North Macedonia, Norway, Poland, Slovakia, Spain, the United States, and the United Kingdom. [EPA-EFE/MARTIN DIVISEK]