Brussels’ back-to-school blues

While the mood in Brussels is undeniably somber, the prevailing sentiment seems both overly pessimistic and insufficiently so, writes Michael Leigh.

Sir Michael Leigh is Academic Director Master of Arts in European Public Policy at Johns Hopkins University SAIS Europe. He is a former European Commission official.

Brussels is abuzz with rumors as the city’s traffic snarls up once more, roadworks drag on, and the last parking spaces – briefly abundant in August – vanish. In late-summer conversations with EU officials and observers, the words humiliation, weakness, and incompetence recur with striking frequency.

Veteran Brussels insiders argue that the EU misjudged its response to Washington’s intimidation tactics. Their sharpest criticism is directed at the claim that the trade agreement struck with the US president in July – in the informal setting of his Scottish golf club – would deliver “stability and predictability for transatlantic business”. At best, they say, it averted even more damaging moves by Washington. Now the US appears poised to impose additional penalties if the EU applies its digital rules to U.S. firms or fails to deliver on hundreds of billions in promised investments and energy purchases.

What stings most is the perception of Europe’s subservience – captured in the now infamous photograph of EU leaders flashing thumbs-up alongside the US president, while top EU officials, better positioned to assess the concessions, wore pained expressions.

You can see from the face of highly experienced bureaucrat like Sabine Weyand (Director-General for Trade) how good the EU-US deal really is.
By the way, at least 50% of the EU Commission delegation is German. This overrepresentation is staggering given that there are 27 members. pic.twitter.com/7DVAq34df2
— Velina Tchakarova (@vtchakarova) July 28, 2025

The EU’s reactive posture and lack of strategic direction make insiders uncomfortable. They are not convinced that Berlin and Paris, hampered by weak governments, were in a position to block a firmer stance. The Commission holds strong cards in trade negotiations and could have leveraged its influence more effectively. At decisive moments the Commission has often managed to balance member states’ interests to achieve outcomes that serve Europe’s common goals.

Why, trade experts are asking, did Brussels not call Washington’s bluff and reach out to countries defending a rules-based approach to trade? Keeping the White House engaged on Ukraine can scarcely justify accepting a one-sided trade agreement likely to prove short-lived. Instead, many argue, Brussels should be building alliances with the U.K., Switzerland, Norway, Japan, Canada, Australia, Japan, New Zealand, Brazil, India and others hit by Trump’s tariffs.

Some trade experts argue that the EU needs to become more assertive and strategic in its trade policy. For example, they maintain that the EU should prioritize links with the transpacific trade partnership (CPTPP), which the UK joined last year and which accounts for almost 15 percent of world GDP and merchandise trade. A statement by an EU leader that the EU should join the CPTPP as soon as possible would hasten progress. This approach would also mean standing up to protectionist lobbies blocking the EU’s ambitious trade agreement with Argentina, Brazil, Paraguay, and Uruguay (Mercosur), the fifth-largest economy in the world. Furthermore, recent calls for freer trade throughout the Mediterranean region would no longer be bogged down by protectionism, bilateral conflicts, and migration concerns.

The EU’s impotence amid the human costs of the wars in Ukraine and Gaza added to the late-summer malaise. Still, some were heartened by the partial success of European leaders in pulling the U.S. back from unnecessary concessions to Putin at the ill-fated Alaska summit.

In Ukraine, Moldova, and the Balkans, enthusiasm for EU membership has waned due to protracted delays, compounded by Russia’s relentless disinformation campaigns. A former senior EU official has advocated EU mediation ever since the Azerbaijan and Armenia war in 2020, only to find this summer that the White House had brokered an agreement whereby a US company will manage a hitherto contested transport corridor. Where was Europe, he asked wistfully?

Yet the deeper anxiety gripping Brussels this rentrée is the future of democracy itself. The risk that France and Germany – the erstwhile ‘engine of European integration’ – could before long fall under hard-right rule has set alarm bells ringing. Democratic backsliding in Central Europe, combined with troubling developments in Italy and Spain, underscore the growing challenges to Europe’s democratic resilience.

While the mood in Brussels is undeniably somber, the prevailing sentiment seems both overly pessimistic and insufficiently so. The EU’s most serious challenges are often overlooked; they stem less from external pressures, whether from Putin or Trump, and more from its own persistent failure to match its words with action.

This disconnect is illustrated by Mario Draghi’s recent Rimini speech, which highlighted how little progress has been made in implementing his landmark 2024 recommendations for boosting Europe’s competitiveness, green transition, and common defense. It’s one thing to emblazon ‘United for our Future’ across the Commission’s headquarters, and quite another to make a reality of such concepts as strategic autonomy, coalitions of the willing, and global competitiveness.

Yet the pessimism in Brussels is misplaced in some respects. The European Union stands as Ukraine’s foremost supporter, with its collective contributions exceeding those of the United States. A majority of young Europeans continue to view democracy as the best system of government, according to recent polls, even if they see it as increasingly vulnerable. They remain optimistic about the EU’s future and believe it has a positive impact on society. The euro and European equities have seen a strong rally in 2025. So, the challenges of the rentrée are undeniable, but Europe’s ability to adapt and endure will be the key to its success.

Caption: Rond Point Schuman came to symbolize the eternal European construction effort [photo Georgi Gotev]