EditBrace yourself: half a million voters in Saxony-Anhalt are about to make history
The far-right AfD party might have enough seats to rule alone in the small federal state
The 6 September vote could trigger a chain-reaction that would have dramatic political, economic and societal consequences for Germany and Europe, writes Dušan Reljić.
Dušan Reljić is an advisor for European affairs in Brussels and Berlin.
The likely triumph of the far-right party Alternative für Deutschland (AfD) in the September 2026 elections in the federal state of Saxony-Anhalt will mark a turning point in Germany’s post-war history. Aside from the frightening political implications, it could harm the country’s economic performance as well as its external trade and financial relations.
About 1,7 million people have the right to vote in Saxony-Anhalt, one of the smallest German federal units. Of those, 500,000–600,000 people may vote for the party that the German political intelligence service describes as ‘proven right-wing extremists’. They could trigger a chain-reaction that would have dramatic political, economic and societal consequences for Germany and Europe.
The Saxony-Anhalt vote is on 6 September. There are two more ballots in German federal states in the same month: Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania and Berlin (also a federal state) vote on 20 September. In Berlin, the far-right could come second. Die Linke, the leftist party, is leading in the capital in the polls with around 22%. While it needs coalition partners to form a government, the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) party might have enough seats in Saxony-Anhalt to rule alone. The AfD is also expected to come first in Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania, but the centrist parties are likely to gain enough seats in the parliament to form a coalition cabinet in this federal state.
All of this is deeply unnerving for Germany’s established political spectrum and business leaders. They know that the first rise to power of a hard-right party in a German federal state since the Second World War would damage the country’s reputation and harm its economy:
– Investments could drop as foreign investors and domestic private investors may stay away;
– The labour market, already struggling to find enough qualified people, could be further disrupted if inward migration falls sharply and outward migration increases;
– Domestic demand could be depressed. However, more domestic demand is essential to fill the gap created by the shrinking surplus of goods in German external trade.
These and other anticipated negative political, economic and social outcomes are of critical importance to Germany’s partners in the world. If its role as Europe’s pillar of political stability, leading economic power and largest market were to diminish, this would reduce opportunities for investors, sellers and research and development partners from abroad. Central and south-east Europe would be particularly affected by this, given their economic and political fragility and their dependence on German investors, producers and importers.
On the other hand, some Asian commentators suggest that a further rise of the AfD could create a friendly business environment for Chinese companies in Germany similar to how Hungary under Orban attracted hefty Chinese investments. AfD’s leader Alice Weidel allegedly has a strong relationship with Beijing as she has some control of Mandarin, lived in China and wrote her doctoral dissertation on “The Pension System of the People’s Republic of China”.
In parallel, it is expected that if US-President Trump is defeated in the mid-term elections in November, the AfD will distance itself rapidly from him and his ‘Make America Great Again’ ideology. This could make the far right appealing to even more German citizens. Trump is not popular with them, even less so than President Putin. The US is seen as a bigger threat than Russia.
Polls conducted in August 2026 suggest that voters are extremely dissatisfied with the conservative Chancellor, Friedrich Merz. They do not think he will complete his full term before the next election in 2029. With 28 per cent of the vote, the AfD party was the strongest in Germany and appears poised to rise further.
Caption: Alternative for Germany (AfD) party and faction co-chairwoman Alice Weidel (R) and co-chairman Tino Chrupalla (L) attend the AfD federal party congress in Erfurt, Germany, 4 July 2026. Thousands of counter-protesters are expected to converge on Erfurt as the far-right AfD party holds its 17th Federal Party Congress on 4 and 5 July in Erfurt. EPA/HANNIBAL HANSCHKE
Updated: August 25, 2026 - 16:22
