As war flares in the Middle East, Putin acts with impunity in Ukraine

The sudden outbreak of hostilities between Israel and Iran has drastically shifted the focus of the international agenda, leaving Ukraine struggling to regain attention just as Russia intensifies its strikes on civilian targets. With G7 leaders scrambling to address global oil market instability, the Kremlin is exploiting the moment to push forward in Ukraine – unchecked and undeterred.

When the G7 summit opened in Kananaskis on 15 June, expectations were high that Ukraine would return to the centre of global discussions. Russian attacks on Ukrainian energy infrastructure, especially gas production, had reignited calls for a tighter oil price cap and new sanctions against Moscow’s shadow fleet.

Yet, in just days, the international agenda shifted dramatically. The Israel-Iran confrontation has rattled energy markets and driven Brent crude prices to a five-month high, surpassing $78 per barrel. Fears of wider regional destabilisation, should the US or Saudi Arabia become involved have made Western leaders increasingly reluctant to touch the oil market with additional restrictions.

Oil prices are once again driving the pace of G7 negotiations. The fear is not only about the potential loss of Iranian supply (roughly 1.5 million barrels per day), but also about disruptions in the Gulf’s transport routes. Markets respond not to actual losses but to the expectation of them and that volatility is political poison.

For G7 countries, this is a lose-lose dilemma. Additional pressure on Russian oil exports could trigger even higher prices, at a moment when voters are already feeling the pinch. Calls in European capitals to coordinate strategic reserves and pause sanctions momentum are growing louder.

A fading instrument of pressure

The price cap on Russian oil, introduced in late 2022, once promised to restrict Kremlin revenues without hurting global supply. But by June 2025, its effectiveness is eroding. Over 70% of Russian crude is now sold above the $60 cap. The Urals blend alone trades at $69-72 per barrel, according to the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air (CREA).

Recent UK and EU sanctions on Russia’s shadow fleet have had only limited impact. Enforcement gaps remain, and the share of Russian oil shipped by G7+ tankers has actually risen – from 35% in January to 54% in May. Revenues from seaborne crude exports have dropped slightly, but not enough to change the strategic picture.

The Ukrainian issue drifts off the radar

Despite fierce lobbying from Kyiv, there are no signs that the G7 summit will result in new sanctions against Russia. The draft communiqué reportedly contains no fresh commitments, only recycled pledges of support.

The absence of meaningful new measures is alarming. Western fatigue with the war is no longer a theoretical concern, it is now manifest in the G7’s unwillingness to act. For the first time in three years, Ukraine is no longer the defining issue of the summit.

President Trump’s early departure from the summit and cancellation of a planned meeting with Volodymyr Zelenskyy only underlined the shift.

As G7 leaders met, Russia struck Kyiv with drones and missiles. At least 14 people were killed in a targeted attack on a residential building. Ukrainian Foreign Minister Andrii Sybiha described it as a calculated move by Putin to display contempt for the West – timed to coincide with the summit.

The minister said hundreds of drones and missiles were targeted at civilians, with Kyiv particularly hard hit.

“Putin is doing this deliberately, right during the G7 summit. He is sending a signal of complete contempt for the United States and other partners who have called for an end to the killings,” Sibiga posted in X.

“Russia is not only rejecting a ceasefire or a meeting of leaders to find solutions and end the war. It is cynically striking at the capital of Ukraine while pretending to seek diplomatic solutions,” he added.

This is a new reality: Ukraine cannot count on momentum or media attention. Every mention, every policy line, must now be earned against a backdrop of competing crises.

Diplomacy in a fragmented world

Kyiv’s push to lower the price cap to $45 per barrel remains unsupported. Even as Commission President Ursula von der Leyen called for tougher measures, Washington remained opposed.

To reassert its position, Ukraine must shift tactics, away from slow, linear diplomacy and towards rapid, opportunistic advocacy. In a world where news cycles last days, not months, attention is a scarce and fleeting currency.

Unless this gap is closed quickly, Moscow’s gains – in revenue, territory, and narrative – will continue to grow.

Caption: A handout photo released by the press service of the State Emergency Service (SES) of Ukraine shows rescuers working at the site of an airstrike on a residential area in Kyiv, Ukraine, 17 June 2025, amid the Russian invasion. At least 14 people were killed and 60 others injured after Russian shelling hit the Ukrainian capital Kyiv overnight, SES reported.