Are Romanians really turning anti-EU and anti-NATO?

Residents of Tulcea, in northern Romania’s Danube Delta, have become accustomed to the sound of drones and distant explosions. Several times a month, Russian strikes on Ukrainian territory just across the river shake the region. Alerts flash on mobile phones, and sometimes debris of drones land on Romanian soil itself. The war may feel hundreds of kilometres away on the map, but in reality it is right at Romania’s doorstep.

Yet the further one moves away from the border, the more often one hears the refrain: “This is not our war.” On social media, loud voices argue that Romania should remain “neutral,” step away from NATO, and stop spending money on defence.

At first glance, the online storm of pro-Russian commentary may suggest a growing Euroscepticism. In reality, it is largely a mirage. Polling data indicate that Romanians remain overwhelmingly supportive of NATO and the EU – in fact, more so now than before Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022.

Recent INSCOP polls showed that 89.7% of Romanians believe it is in their country’s best interest to remain in both NATO and the EU. By contrast, only 9.4% favoured leaving the EU – a steep decline compared to January 2022, when nearly one in four supported an exit.

Similarly, when asked about military spending, 59.8% of respondents supported increasing the defence budget in the context of the war in Ukraine, despite looming austerity measures. Only 36.6% opposed. These figures stand in stark contrast to the image of a divided or reluctant Romania that one might encounter on Facebook comment threads.

The discrepancy suggests a key lesson: the loudest voices on social media do not represent the majority. Politicians tempted to exploit this apparent wave of scepticism risk misreading the national mood and miscalculating badly.

Nuances beneath the surface

While support for NATO and EU membership is overwhelming, trust in the institutions themselves is more nuanced. According to the same INSCOP survey, 70.5% of Romanians expressed “very much” or “fairly much” trust in NATO**, while 27.9% reported little or no trust. At the same time, 77% of respondents said that a withdrawal of NATO troops from Eastern Europe would negatively affect Romania’s security.

This illustrates a pragmatic understanding: even those sceptical of NATO recognise that Romania would be highly vulnerable without it. Romanians may not grant the Alliance unconditional trust, but they acknowledge it as indispensable for national security.

Despite the data, populist politicians continue to amplify Eurosceptic narratives. Far-right figures such as George Simion and Diana Șoșoacă compete to radicalise their base by railing against “foreign control” and Western institutions. Television stations owned by convicted businessmen provide a constant platform for such messages.

But these remain “minority positions”, not majority sentiment. What appears to be a groundswell of pro-Russian sympathy is more often a coordinated campaign of bots, trolls, and aggressive online accounts. Treating this noise as public opinion, analysts warn, would be “fundamentally wrong”.

A deeper challenge: Romania’s identity crisis

Beyond geopolitics, however, lies a more troubling reality. Romanians’ pro-Western orientation risks erosion due to a profound crisis of identity and memory.

Despite the traumas of dictatorship, 66% of Romanians now view Nicolae Ceaușescu as “rather a good leader”. An astonishing 77% believe Romania was wealthier under communism than it is today, even though GDP per capita has increased more than fivefold in real terms since 1989.

Nostalgia or manipulation? Two-thirds of Romanians view Ceaușescu as a good leader

The nostalgia is not limited to wealth. Surveys show that 71.3% of Romanians feel their country has lost its cultural identity in recent decades. Without a compelling narrative of pride in belonging to Europe, citizens fall back on the simplistic nationalism of the Ceaușescu era – the very sentiment exploited by today’s radical parties.

In reality, Romania has advanced dramatically since 1989. Its economy is far more diverse and resilient, ranking 26th globally in economic complexity, a measure of competitiveness and capacity for innovation. The country is deeply integrated into European industrial supply chains, exporting automobiles and high-value services that communist Romania could not even dream of producing.

But these achievements remain invisible to many outside the big cities. For those in smaller towns and rural areas, the benefits of EU membership are less tangible, while the scars of “wild capitalism” remain fresh. Without a story that connects Romania’s everyday realities to its European success, nostalgia and scepticism will continue to grow.

The risk ahead

Romania remains one of the most pro-EU and pro-NATO countries in Europe. Yet this support should not be taken for granted. Economic hardship, austerity, and poor communication from leaders could widen the gap between statistics and sentiment.

The danger is clear: if the pro-European consensus erodes, populists aligned with Moscow will step in. By exploiting identity anxieties and amplifying social media noise, they could undermine Romania’s Euro-Atlantic orientation.

The lesson for policymakers is straightforward – do not mistake online hysteria for public opinion. But equally, do not ignore the deeper identity vacuum that fuels it. Romanians must not only be told that they are safer in NATO and wealthier in the EU – they must be given reasons to feel proud of their place within Europe’s cultural and political community.

Otherwise, the risk is that Romania’s European dream could collapse under the weight of nostalgia and disillusionment leaving the door wide open to the very forces the country has sought to escape.

This article by the chieh editor of EUalive’s media partner PressOne Adrian Mihălțianu has been edited. The original version in Romanian can be found here.

Caption: Romanian protesters shout slogans and hold up an EU flag and placards, the left placard says: `WE ARE THE FUTURE, NOT GEROGESCU IN SECOND ROUND!`, during a protest held at the University Plaza following the surprise win of far-right independent candidate Calin Georgescu in the first round of presidential elections, in central Bucharest, Romania, 26 November 2024.