Analyst warns: Serbia may try to derail Montenegro’s EU advancement

As discussions intensify over the potential admission of Montenegro and Albania to the European Union by 2030, analysts warn that Serbia may seek to hinder its neighbor’s advancement.

Sonja Biserko, chairwoman of the Helsinki Committee for Human Rights in Serbia, argues in an interview by the Montenegrin newspaper Pobjeda that Belgrade views Montenegro’s accelerated integration as a threat to its regional dominance and the ongoing efforts to promote Serb identity in the country. Such a development would effectively signal the collapse of the “Serbian World” project, a vision of Serbian supremacy across the Balkans.

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Montenegro remains highly vulnerable to malign Serbian interference due to shared linguistic and cultural ties, the influential role of the Serbian Orthodox Church in promoting pro-Serbian narratives and challenging Montenegrin sovereignty, dominant Serbian-owned media spreading disinformation, funding of pro-Serbian political parties, and historical identity disputes that Belgrade exploits to undermine Podgorica’s Euro-Atlantic orientation.

Serbia’s reluctance and regional implications

Biserko described Serbian President Aleksandar Vučić’s preference for simultaneous accession of the entire Western Balkans as a no-go, given Serbia’s significant delays in implementing required reforms. The EU has repeatedly called on Belgrade to address deficiencies in media freedom, civil society support, academic independence, and countermeasures against foreign disinformation.

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Brussels has also pointed to Serbia’s limited progress on judicial reforms and ensuring fair elections, including proper voter register management. Additionally, the EU demands normalisation of relations with Kosovo and other commitments. Biserko argued that Serbia shows little genuine interest in membership, instead aiming to obstruct its neighbors. She noted that the EU’s earlier policy of appeasement toward Serbia has proven ineffective, leading to a renewed focus on Albania and Montenegro.

“It is not difficult to conclude that Serbia acts more as an oppressor than a reliable partner,” she stated.

German Chancellor Friedrich Merz, speaking on 11 December during a joint press conference in Berlin with NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte, praised Montenegro as the most advanced among EU candidate countries and suggested it could soon progress to the next accession stage.

European officials’ commendation of Montenegro’s reforms has irritated Belgrade, fueling fears that Serbia’s stagnation could increase Russia’s malign influence in the region. Biserko described Serbia as deeply intertwined with Russian interests, with Vučić often prioritizing Moscow. She noted that Vučić’s Serbian Progressive Party facilitated Russian penetration, which now spans the Balkans. Russia, she added, seeks to preserve the status quo, using radical elements as instruments.

Biserko warned that Vučić’s failure to defend authentic Serbian interests risks plunging the country into 1990s-style chaos. Rising tensions and public anxiety – evident in a reported panic buying of euros in Serbia – highlight the fragility of the situation.

The European Commission has praised Montenegro’s progress, signaling it could be the next EU member, driven partly by strategic considerations similar to those behind Romania and Bulgaria’s accession. Biserko observed that the EU has evolved significantly since then, with consensus-based decision-making slowing processes—as seen in delays over Ukraine support, where Hungary acted as the primary obstacle.

Igor Bandović, director of the Belgrade Center for Security Policy, echoed these views in a Radio Free Europe broadcast. He highlighted Russia’s efforts to undermine Western Balkan EU accession, including attempts to shift Montenegro’s foreign policy. Moscow, he said, embeds itself in the region mainly through Serbia via cultural links, such as a Belgrade branch of the Russian Historical Society led by figures tied to Russian intelligence, including Aleksandar Vulin.

Bandović cited plans for a Faculty of Serbian Studies, focusing on Serbian-Russian history, language, and literature – as distractions from Serbia’s EU commitments. The EU faces a dilemma: halting Serbia’s integration risks driving it closer to Moscow, akin to Georgia’s path.

On the negotiation front, Montenegro remains the frontrunner among Western Balkan candidates. By mid-December 2025, an intergovernmental conference is expected, where Podgorica anticipates closing several chapters, potentially including right of establishment and freedom to provide services, free movement of capital, company law, agriculture and rural development, and fisheries.

However, French reservations over agriculture and fisheries may delay closures of three chapters: food safety, regional policy, and financial provisions, while Croatia is unlikely to lift its block on foreign and security policy.

Croatia’s objection stems from several unresolved bilateral issues, which Zagreb views as harmful to relations and inconsistent with EU values of good neighbourliness:

Montenegro’s parliamentary resolution in June/July 2024 recognising genocide at the WWII Jasenovac camp (operated by the Ustasha regime in Croatia), along with Dachau and Mauthausen — Croatia criticised this as politicising history and instrumentalising victims.
Disputes over property from the former Yugoslavia, notably ownership of the training ship Jadran.
Border demarcation, particularly maritime borders (e.g., Prevlaka peninsula).
Prosecution of war crimes from the 1990s Yugoslav wars, including the Morinj camp (where Croatian prisoners were held) and a memorial plaque controversy.
Fate of missing persons from the 1991–1995 conflicts and related historical grievances.

Croatia submitted a “non-paper” outlining these concerns and has stated it supports Montenegro’s EU path in principle but insists on resolving these issues first. Croatian officials, including Foreign Minister Gordan Grlić Radman, emphasise that these are not formal preconditions for accession but matters of European values and neighbourly relations.

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Sources: Pobjeda, Antena-M, Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty, edited by a.k.

Caption: Prime Minister Milojko Spajić and European Council President António Costa meet in Brussels on November 18 to discuss the progress of reforms and Montenegro’s upcoming steps toward European integration. (Office of the Prime Minister)