Analysis: political turbulence in Romania is an extension of PSD’s deepening crisis

The latest “political turbulence” is not an isolated event but a symptom of PSD’s broader and deepening crisis, one that will continue to shape Romanian politics in the months ahead, writes our partner PressOne in an analysis.

The Social Democratic Party (PSD), Romania’s largest political force, has triggered a new government crisis by withdrawing its support for Prime Minister Ilie Bolojan (PNL) and issuing him a three-day ultimatum to resign. At the same time, PSD leaders have signalled openness to continuing the coalition in its traditional form with the Liberals (PNL), the Hungarian minority party UDMR, or even with their former “class enemies” from the reformist USR – as long as Bolojan is no longer at the helm.

Bolojan immediately rejected the demand, refusing to step down and accusing the Social Democrats of “cowardice” and “irresponsible” behavior. In response, both PNL and USR have declared they will no longer accept any coalition that includes key PSD figures such as Sorin Grindeanu, effectively rendering the party “radioactive” in current negotiations.

Why PSD launched the crisis

According to the analysis, the move is not a sudden impulse but the continuation of a long-term structural crisis within PSD. The party hoped to provoke a rebellion inside PNL that would remove Bolojan, allowing PSD to rebuild a dominant coalition (a sort of “USL 2.0”) from a position of strength, with a weakened liberal partner.

That scenario has stalled for now, as PNL has closed ranks behind Bolojan. Other options – such as USR leader Dominic Fritz joining PSD’s game or a quick pivot to AUR — also appear unlikely at this stage.

Economic risks and the role of President Nicușor Dan

The political standoff is already affecting the economy. Romania’s 2026 budget relies heavily on European funds, and any prolonged coalition deadlock risks delaying key reforms under the National Recovery and Resilience Plan (PNRR), potentially jeopardizing future payments.

Attention has now shifted to President Nicușor Dan at Cotroceni Palace, who must navigate the crisis. The president is particularly keen to keep USR in government, as the party controls strategic ministries (Defense and Economy) ahead of a critical 31 May deadline for major SAFE defense procurement programs worth €16 billion.

Nicușor Dan has indicated that “all options are on the table” except governing with the far-right AUR. He also needs PSD’s cooperation to appoint new heads of the intelligence services in the near future. While the president can request Bolojan’s resignation, he cannot constitutionally force it; a new prime minister can only be appointed after the current government falls in Parliament.

PSD’s strategic dilemma

PSD’s core dilemma is whether to fully exit the government – and if so, how dramatically. A complete withdrawal would mean relinquishing not only ministerial posts but also thousands of state secretary, agency, and local administration positions that sustain the party’s clientelistic networks and local structures.

Such a move would sever PSD’s access to public resources at a time when its traditional electorate continues to drift toward the far-right AUR. Leaving government with “torches blazing” could accelerate the party’s decline, while staying risks further internal erosion and public backlash.

PSD remains in the government at least until the three-day ultimatum expires on Thursday. The coming days of consultations at Cotroceni will determine whether the crisis leads to early elections, a reshuffled coalition without Bolojan, or a tense continuation of the current fragile arrangement.

“The Moment of Truth”: Romania heads towards political crisis

The original article in Romanian by EUalive’s partner PressOne.ro can be found here.

Caption: The President of the Chamber of Deputies of Romania and the leader of the PSD ruling party Sorin Grindeanu delivers the closing speech at the National Convention of the PSD (Social Democracy Party), held at the Palace of Parliament in Bucharest, Romania, 20 April 2026. At the end of the convention, 97.5 percent of PSD territorial organization representatives voted for the PSD to withdraw its political support for incumbent Liberal Prime Minister Ilie Bolojan. The PSD’s decision to withdraw support for the prime minister is expected to generate political instability, as the PSD is the leading party of the ruling coalition. EPA/ROBERT GHEMENT