EditAnalysis: Kazakhstan as a middle power in the shift from rule-based to deal-based world order
For Kazakhstan, the path forward lies not in choosing sides in great-power competition, but in developing a strong portfolio of platforms for dialogue
In a deal-based order that favors great powers, middle powers risk marginalization unless they actively cultivate relevance, according to an analysis by Kazinform.
The global order is shifting from a traditional rule-based system toward a more transactional, deal-based model. Traditional alliances are weakening, and geopolitical boundaries are becoming increasingly fluid. This transformation, accelerated by the changes in U.S. foreign policy during Donald Trump’s second presidential term, creates both risks and new opportunities for middle powers, including Kazakhstan.
The conventional international structure, long defined by a West versus non-West dichotomy, is fading. Previously, the global order revolved around an intensifying U.S.-China rivalry that never fully became a stable bipolar system. Under Trump, this familiar framework is being dismantled. There is no longer a coherent “united West” anchored in Washington. Trump’s statements on Greenland, his repeated criticism of NATO and EU allies, and his remarks at the 2026 World Economic Forum in Davos all signal that alliances are now treated as conditional transactions rather than permanent strategic commitments.
At the same time, the United States is shifting its focus more toward the Western Hemisphere, showing less willingness to underwrite security arrangements in Europe and Asia.
As a result, the world is moving from a rule-based order built on stable institutions and predictable alliances to a deal-based order dominated by ad hoc bargaining. This shift brings uncertainty for many countries, but it also opens significant space for middle powers.
Middle powers are states that possess substantial economic weight, demographic strength, and institutional capacity – more than small states but short of the global dominance sought by great powers. Instead of pursuing hegemony or military blocs, they deliver practical public goods such as mediation platforms, connectivity corridors, talent pipelines, and technological ecosystems. Countries like Japan, South Korea, Singapore, Turkey, and the United Arab Emirates are prominent examples. Kazakhstan, with its significant influence across Eurasia, is increasingly recognized in this category.
The idea of a stronger role for middle powers has gained momentum. At the 2026 Davos forum, Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney urged middle powers to cooperate against rising hard-power politics. Similar calls have come from leaders including Japan’s Shigeru Ishiba, Norway’s Jonas Gahr Støre, and others at the UN General Assembly. This vision aligns closely with the long-standing position of Kazakh President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev, who has consistently advocated for UN reform and a greater voice for middle powers in global governance.
Kazakhstan is well-positioned to benefit from this shift and move from being primarily a rule-taker to an active agenda-setter. In today’s transactional environment, functional relevance – the ability to offer solutions that others need – has become the key measure of middle-power status.
Kazakhstan has already made notable progress in several strategic areas. In artificial intelligence, the country has built a dynamic ecosystem with over 100 startups, its first AI unicorn, and a fivefold increase in venture capital investment. The creation of a dedicated Ministry of Artificial Intelligence and Digital Development, a national strategy, sovereign computing capacity, and broad adoption across government and industry have positioned AI as a genuine driver of future economic growth.
Educational diplomacy forms another important pillar. Once mainly a recipient of foreign education, Kazakhstan now hosts around 30 international university campuses and more than 35,000 foreign students. Programs like Bolashak, combined with efforts to become a regional education hub, are enhancing the country’s soft power and long-term influence.
Beyond technology and education, Kazakhstan is building relevance through mediation, logistics, and energy transition. It has established itself as a neutral diplomatic platform via the Astana Process on Syria, the Congress of Leaders of World and Traditional Religions, and other forums. As a key node in the Middle Corridor, it is expanding rail networks, dry ports, and logistics hubs that provide alternative supply chains. At the same time, as a major producer of oil, gas, and uranium while investing in renewables, green hydrogen, and nuclear energy, Kazakhstan is emerging as a pragmatic broker in the global energy transition.
In a deal-based order that tends to favour great powers, middle powers risk marginalisation unless they actively build relevance. For Kazakhstan, the path forward lies not in choosing sides in great-power competition, but in developing a strong portfolio of functional strengths – platforms for dialogue, reliable connectivity, talent development, and practical solutions. In an era of fragmented alliances and reduced predictability, countries that can supply these assets become indispensable.
The central question is no longer whether Kazakhstan qualifies as a middle power, but whether it will consciously seize the opportunity to lead and shape this emerging network of like-minded states.
This analysis has been refined for greater clarity, elegance, and readability.
Caption: Drone image of Astana with the location of the 2017 World Expo in focus. [Akorda]
Updated: May 27, 2026 - 08:04
