EditAnalysis: Is the Israel-U.S. campaign against Iran driving Turkey into Russian and Chinese arms?
Erdoğan's powerful far-right ally Devlet Bahçeli says Ankara must counter a “coalition of evil” led by Tel Aviv and Washington by deepening ties with Moscow and Beijing
In Turkey’s political system, Devlet Bahçeli’s backing matters: without the MHP, Erdoğan would lose his parliamentary majority and his prospects for reelection would be badly weakened, writes Günter Seufert.
Günter Seufert is the former Founding Director of the Centre for Applied Turkish Studies at the German Institute for International and Security Affairs. He wrote this op-ed in personal capacity.
Are Israel and the United States, through their war against Iran, pushing Turkey closer to Russia and China? Devlet Bahçeli says they are. The chairman of the far-right Nationalist Movement Party (MHP) and a key ally of President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan argues that Turkey must respond to what he calls a “coalition of evil” led by Tel Aviv and Washington by deepening ties with Moscow and Beijing. In Turkey’s political system, Bahçeli’s backing matters: without the MHP, Erdoğan would lose his parliamentary majority and his prospects for reelection would be badly weakened.
Bahçeli has moved to back up his rhetoric. In April, he sent his deputy Ilyas Topsakal to Moscow, where he discussed the idea with Russian strategists. In an interview with the Russian newspaper Vedomosti, Topsakal went further, saying the MHP would not support Erdoğan in the 2028 election if he failed to follow Bahçeli’s line. For decades, the MHP promoted pan-Turkist unity across Turkey, Azerbaijan, Central Asia and Siberia, a stance long viewed warily in Moscow. Topsakal now says that was a mistake and that pan-Turkism has become little more than a romantic subculture.
Bahçeli’s alarm is driven in large part by fear of an assertive Israel. Israeli commentators have increasingly cast Turkey as a new strategic threat after Iran was already weakened by the war. The Jerusalem Post wrote on 14 March: “Tactical successes against Iranian missile arrays and naval vessels are necessary, but they are insufficient if the ideological vacuum is filled by an emboldened Turkish Islamism“. The paper said Turkey was trying to block a “Pax Israeliana, a situation where Israel’s strength keeps the region stable“. Before the war against Iran, Israel’s diaspora affairs minister, Amichai Chikli said “Erdoğan is the greatest threat to the State of Israel at this moment”, while HaYom described Turkey’s control of Northern Cyprus as a security risk that must be removed.
On the divided island of Cyprus, Israel has in recent years deepened its military and intelligence cooperation with the Republic of Cyprus, the internationally recognized state of the Greek Cypriots. The Israeli air force also uses Cypriot airspace, a development that deeply unsettles Ankara. When, on October 19, 2025, the opposition social-democratic candidate defeated the incumbent backed by Erdoğan and Bahçeli in the presidential election in the so-called Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus (TRNC), Bahçeli called for Turkey to annex the island’s northern part without delay. The aim, he said, was to prevent Cyprus from reunifying and the entire island from slipping out of Turkey’s grasp, and falling under hostile — meaning Israeli — influence.
So far, Israel and Turkey have come into direct conflict primarily in Syria. In March and April 2025, the Israeli air force bombed Syrian bases that Ankara had been considering for the deployment of Turkish fighter jets. And since the fall of Bashar al-Assad in Damascus in December 2024, Tel Aviv and Ankara have competed for influence among Syria’s Kurds. Israel had already deepened ties with the Kurds in Iraq. In Turkey, it was Bahçeli in particular who feared that Tel Aviv could use the Syrian Kurds and the PKK for anti-Turkish purposes. Against Erdoğan’s initial resistance, he called for negotiations between the Turkish state and the PKK, the Kurdistan Workers’ Party, which led the PKK to announce its dissolution exactly one year ago.
To push the talks forward, Bahçeli even demanded in the first week of May 2025 that Abdullah Öcalan, the PKK founder imprisoned in Turkey, be appointed “coordinator of the peace process.” The proposal triggered outrage among other parties in Turkey, which for years have referred to Öcalan only as the “child murderer.”
Whether Turkey is truly drifting into Russia’s orbit remains far from certain, despite Bahçeli’s considerable influence. For now, Erdoğan’s good relationship with Donald Trump is shaping politics in Ankara. Erdoğan condemns Netanyahu because Israel has destroyed not only Gaza but also southern Lebanon, yet he says nothing critical about the U.S. president. Trump, meanwhile, harshly criticizes Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez for blocking U.S. access to Spanish airspace for attacks on Iran, but remains silent about Erdoğan doing the same with Turkish airspace.
However, opinion polls suggest the mood in the population is already sour. For years, Israelis and Americans have ranked first and second when Turks are asked which countries pose the greatest threat to Turkey.
Caption: Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan speaks during a press conference following a cabinet meeting in Ankara, Turkey, 6 April 2026. EPA/NECATI SAVAS
Updated: May 11, 2026 - 06:10
