EditAfter public spat with allies, Trump raises stakes in Iran crisis
The most undiplomatic fallout came in a clash with Macron. “Emmanuel always gets it wrong”, Trump posted
On 16 June President Donald Trump’s abrupt departure from the G7 summit in Kananaskis, Alberta, sent shockwaves through the international community, leaving allies scrambling and escalating concerns over the intensifying Israel-Iran conflict.
The move, described by some diplomats as a humiliation for U.S. partners, underscored Trump’s unilateral approach to global crises and strained relations with key allies, most notably French President Emmanuel Macron. In the days since, Trump’s provocative rhetoric, including an ultimatum to Iran and hints at potential U.S. military action, has heightened fears of a broader Middle East conflict.
Trump’s early exit from the G7came amid escalating hostilities between Israel and Iran, marked by Israeli airstrikes targeting Iranian nuclear facilities and military leadership, and Iran’s retaliatory missile barrages on Israeli cities. The White House cited the Middle East crisis as the reason for Trump’s departure, with Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt stating, “Because of what’s going on in the Middle East, President Trump will be leaving tonight after dinner with Heads of State.”
However, Trump’s decision to leave before key discussions, including a planned meeting with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, left G7 leaders grappling with a fragmented agenda and a sense of diplomatic abandonment. Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney called the move “understandable” but emphasized the need for continued dialogue, while others privately expressed frustration at the disruption.
The most public fallout came in a clash with Macron, who suggested Trump’s exit was tied to ceasefire negotiations between Israel and Iran. Speaking to reporters, Macron stated, “If the United States can achieve a ceasefire, that’s a very good thing,” implying Trump was personally mediating.
Trump swiftly rebuked this on Truth Social, calling Macron “publicity-seeking” and declaring his departure was for “much bigger” reasons than a ceasefire. “Whether purposely or not, Emmanuel always gets it wrong,” Trump posted, dismissing the French leader’s narrative.
This public spat deepened the sense of disarray among G7 allies, with one senior diplomat noting, “We don’t know” whether Trump’s return to Washington signalled diplomatic efforts or preparation for war.
Stark ultimatum
Since the G7, Trump has intensified pressure on Iran, issuing a stark ultimatum. On 17 June he posted on Truth Social, warning Tehran residents to “immediately evacuate” and demanding Iran’s “unconditional surrender” while claiming knowledge of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei’s location.
Trump reiterated that Iran “cannot have a nuclear weapon” and accused Tehran of missing a 60-day window to negotiate a nuclear deal, stating, “They should have done the deal… Iran is not winning this war.” This followed Israel’s strikes on Iran’s nuclear infrastructure and military targets, which began on 13 June and have killed hundreds, exposing Iran’s weakened air defences. Iran retaliated with missile strikes on Israeli cities, raising fears of an environmental disaster as both sides targeted oil and gas facilities.
The prospect of U.S. military involvement looms large. Trump convened a National Security Council meeting upon returning to Washington on 17 June, with a U.S. official telling Fox News that strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities, including the fortified Fordo site, are “on the table.”
Israeli officials have pressed for U.S. intervention, specifically requesting bunker-busting bombs to target Iran’s deeply buried nuclear sites. However, U.S. officials, including Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth, have maintained that American forces remain in a “defensive posture” and are not currently joining Israel’s offensive. Trump has been vague on military plans, saying, “I don’t want to talk about that,” when pressed on potential U.S. involvement.
Evaluating the probability of a U.S. strike on Iran
Trump’s rhetoric and history of bold foreign policy moves suggest a willingness to consider military action, particularly to prevent Iran from advancing its nuclear program, which he has repeatedly called a red line. Reports indicate Iran has signalled interest in de-escalation through intermediaries, but its threats to exit the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty and Khamenei’s defiance – “we will show the Zionists no mercy” – complicate diplomacy.
A source familiar with internal discussions, as per Reuters, said Trump and his team are considering a number of options, including joining Israel on strikes against Iranian nuclear sites.
The U.S. Office of the Director of National Intelligence says Iran is armed with the largest number of ballistic missiles in the Middle East. Iran has said its ballistic missiles are an important deterrent and retaliatory force against the U.S., Israel and other potential regional targets. Against U.S. targets, Iran is expected to use shorter range missiles, the stocks of which are untouched since 13 June.
If Iran attacks U.S. bases in the region, the U.S. is almost certain to retaliate, likely with airstrikes, cyber operations, or strikes on Iran’s proxies, depending on the attack’s severity. The probability of direct U.S. strikes on Iran is high but tempered by Iran’s caution and the Trump administration’s preference for diplomacy, as seen in its initial restraint. However, the volatile Israel-Iran conflict, combined with Trump’s hardline stance, makes miscalculation a significant risk.
With Reuters, CNN, Fox News, ABC News, edited by g.g.
Caption: US Vice President JD Vance (C) departs the White House after President Trump met with him and cabinet members in the Situation Room of the White House in Washington, DC, USA, 17 June 2025. US President Donald Trump returned early to the White House from the G7 in Canada to weigh his administration’s options in the escalating conflict between Iran and Israel. [EPA/JIM LO SCALZO]
Updated: June 18, 2025 - 06:57
