EditAfter both appeasement and war, Europe’s policy toward Iran demands a third option
Regime change in Iran can be achieved by the efforts of the Iranian people themselves
Tehran’s worsening human rights abuses and the accompanying persistence of opposition activism will both be highlighted for international audiences on 6 September when tens of thousands of Iranian expatriates from throughout Europe gather in Brussels for a protest rally, writes Carlo Ciccioli.
Carlo Ciccioli is a member of the European Parliament from the ruling Brothers of Italy party. He submitted this op-ed exclusively for EUalive.
Western policies toward the Islamic Republic of Iran have struggled to effect positive outcomes since the inception of the theocratic dictatorship in the aftermath of the 1979 revolution. All efforts to appease or negotiate with that regime have ultimately led to increases in the breadth and severity of its malign activities, and in June the persistent failure to effectively address those activities led to the sudden outbreak of war between Iran and Israel.
The US was briefly drawn into that conflict and dropped heavy ordnance on three key nuclear sites, dealing damage to Iran’s provocative nuclear program, which had previously acquired enough highly enriched uranium to power ten nuclear explosive devices if enriched just a little further, to weapons grade. But even in light of this damage, threats from the Islamic Republic have not noticeably diminished, and the regime continues to broadcast a belligerent posture in its dealings with all perceived foreign enemies.
Meanwhile, the regime is also stepping up its efforts to crack down on domestic threats to its hold on power. After a nationwide uprising began in September 2022, its immediate response led to an estimated 750 deaths, plus tens of thousands of arrests. This, in turn, helped to spur a surge of executions that killed another 850 individuals the following year, and 1,000 in 2024. The judiciary is on pace to significantly exceed this figure in the present year, while also taking more explicit aim at prominent opposition activists.
In late July, two members of the leading pro-democracy resistance movement, the People’s Mojahedin Organization of Iran, were abruptly hanged despite widespread outcry from fellow prisoners and the broader society, for “crimes” that included “enmity against God.” In 1988, that same offense was used to justify the mass execution of an estimated 30,000 political prisoners, about 90 percent of whom were also supporters of the PMOI/MEK. When five more of that group’s members were transferred to an undisclosed location, apparently in preparation for their hangings, concerns began to circulate widely about the possibility of a new massacre.
Crucially, though, these concerns among human rights defenders and pro-democracy activists have been emerging alongside the regime’s own fears about mounting domestic threats to its hold on power. The 1988 massacre and the systematic killings in 2022 and beyond are both products of these concerns, but they have recognizably failed in their goal of suppressing pro-democracy sentiment and public opposition to the theocratic system.
Tehran’s worsening human rights abuses and the accompanying persistence of opposition activism will both be highlighted for international audiences on 6 September when tens of thousands of Iranian expatriates from throughout Europe gather in Brussels for a protest rally. That event will also serve to present Western governments and policymakers with options for how to alter their own policies toward the Islamic Republic in the presence of these competing trends.
The mainstream EU policy on Iran for decades has been tending toward conciliation and appeasement in dealings with the mullahs’ regime. But the coalition of Iranian democratic opposition, The National Council of Resistance of Iran has been consistent in its aversion to war as a possible alternative to those policies. Indeed, the NCRI has warned, and the Brussels protesters will no doubt repeat, that appeasement ultimately makes war unavoidable, and that it was precisely this prior flaw in Western policy that led to the 12-day war between Iran and Israel in June.
The European Union and to that effect the entire international community would be well-advised to consider the argument that there is a third alternative to both conciliation and war which has, for various reasons, gone largely un-acknowledged by those in a position to promote it internationally. The Brussels mass protest is intended to serve, first and foremost, as an outlet for the message that regime change in Iran can be achieved by the efforts of the Iranian people themselves, particularly in view offered by Maryam Rajavi, who the NCRI has designated to serve as Iran’s transitional president following the mullahs’ overthrow.
Rajavi has long promoted a ten-point plan for Iran’s future, outlining free and fair elections, separation of religion from the state, legal safeguards on the rights of women and minorities, a commitment to peaceful international relations, and dismantling of the outgoing regime’s nuclear weapons program. More than 4,000 Western parliamentarians have already recognized that plan as a roadmap for Iran’s integration into the community of nations, and for the Iranian people’s liberation from a multi-generational history of oppression.
It is high time for the EU to adopt a new policy on Iran. Prudence dictates that it is wise to heed the message of the 6 September mass rally – the cry of Iranian expatriates whose sole demand from the world is recognition of the justice and viability of their cause.
Disclaimer: EUalive doesn’t necessarily share the opinion of the guest authors and is open to publishing other views on the same topic.
Caption: Protesters hold up portraits of National Council of Resistance of Iran (NCR) leader Maryam Rajavi and her missing husband, Iranian opposition leader Massoud Rajavi, during a demonstration organized by members of the Iranian opposition calling for democracy and human rights in Iran, in Paris, France, 08 February 2025. Thousands of people participated in the protest held a few days before the 46th anniversary of the 1979 revolution on 11 February 2025. EPA/YOAN VALAT
Updated: August 22, 2025 - 10:37
