EditAfD poised to break Germany’s post-war firewall in Saxony-Anhalt
Polls show AfD heading for clear lead in the eastern state election as Chancellor Merz warns of economic and political fallout
Voters in Saxony-Anhalt head to the polls on Sunday in an election that polls have consistently projected as a potential turning point in German post-war politics. The far-right Alternative for Germany is expected to finish first with support in the range of 40 to 43 percent, well ahead of the Christian Democrats at 22 to 23 percent, Die Linke at 11 to 13 percent, the Social Democrats at 7 to 9 percent and the Greens at 5 to 6 percent.
The Free Democrats and the Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht hover at or below the five-percent threshold needed to enter the state parliament.
With a population of roughly 2.1 million, the eastern state has become the most closely watched regional contest in years because an AfD-led government would mark the first time since 1945 that a party classified by domestic intelligence as having a confirmed far-right character assumes executive power in a German Land.
Chancellor Friedrich Merz has framed the vote as a direct examination of the post-war convention that excludes the far right from governing. He has warned that an AfD administration would deter foreign investors and could prompt companies to shift capital and operations to neighbouring states rather than risk dealing with an unpredictable executive. Merz links the outcome to Germany’s broader economic difficulties: weak domestic consumption, declining investment, persistently high energy costs and the political pressure exerted by the AfD’s rise. In his view, the election tests not only regional governance but the credibility of the federal coalition he leads with the Social Democrats.
Leuna investment and the contest over Germany’s economic direction
The campaign has repeatedly returned to the concrete example of industrial investment. At the Finnish company UPM’s plant in Leuna, Saale County, outgoing CDU Minister-President Sven Schulze highlighted what he described as the largest bioeconomy investment in Europe, valued at 1.3 billion euros. Schulze presented the project as evidence that Saxony-Anhalt stands at the forefront of advanced technology rather than on the periphery of German prosperity. Merz used the same site to argue that such commitments depend on Germany’s continued membership in the European single market and the Schengen area. Anyone seeking to leave those frameworks, he said, fundamentally undermines projects of this scale. The chancellor’s message has been consistent: voters who want Germany to remain an open, liberal economy should support the CDU rather than the AfD.
An AfD victory would complicate federal politics as well. A highly visible eastern state government openly hostile to key assumptions of current policy – on European integration, sanctions against Russia and support for Ukraine, would deepen tensions inside Merz’s coalition and invite intensified internal party debate about his strategy for containing the far right. Intelligence services continue to classify the AfD’s Saxony-Anhalt branch as an organisation of confirmed far-right character, yet that designation has not dented the party’s polling lead. The AfD rejects the label as politically motivated and presents the election as a revolt against elite consensus, migration policy and economic stagnation.
Migration policy, Russia and the human stakes
The AfD’s leading candidate, Ulrich Siegmund, has campaigned on a platform of rapid political change that includes a large-scale deportation and remigration programme, a retreat from renewable-energy priorities and a self-described patriotic cultural agenda. The party’s regional manifesto calls for a complete reorientation of migration policy, separate education for refugee children, redirection of integration funds toward remigration efforts and an end to the recognition of Ukrainians as war refugees. These positions have produced acute anxiety among people with migrant backgrounds living in the state. Local organisations report daily calls from residents weighing whether to leave Saxony-Anhalt before any change of government takes effect. The social climate has already grown more hostile since the December 2024 Christmas-market attack in Magdeburg; reports of racist insults and assaults rose sharply through 2025.
Saxony-Anhalt has also become a focal point for disputes over Germany’s policy toward Russia. The eastern AfD advocates rebuilding relations with Moscow and criticises support for Ukraine, positions that resonate with parts of an electorate shaped by decades of Soviet military presence. A state government led by the party could amplify pro-Moscow narratives and challenge the federal consensus on foreign and security policy, even though formal responsibility for those areas remains in Berlin. Reports indicate that federal ministries and the Bundeswehr have already examined contingency arrangements to ensure that defence logistics for NATO’s eastern flank would not be obstructed by uncooperative state authorities.
In an analysis for EUalive, Dušan Reljić observed that the 6 September vote could trigger a chain reaction with dramatic political, economic and societal consequences for Germany and Europe. Reljić, an advisor on European affairs in Brussels and Berlin, argued that the likely triumph of the AfD in Saxony-Anhalt would mark a turning point in Germany’s post-war history. Beyond the immediate political implications, he wrote, it could damage the country’s economic performance as well as its external trade and financial relations.
Current arithmetic makes a majority for any combination of CDU, SPD, Greens and Die Linke difficult. The CDU has ruled out coalitions with both the AfD and Die Linke, leaving open the possibility of a minority government dependent on passive tolerance. Whatever the precise configuration that emerges, the result will be read far beyond Magdeburg – in Warsaw, Brussels and Washington – as a measure of Germany’s capacity to maintain the political firewall that has defined its democracy for eight decades and as a signal of the country’s reliability at a moment of heightened tension on NATO’s eastern flank.
Sources: FocusEurope.pl, Reuters, The Guardian
Brace yourself: half a million voters in Saxony-Anhalt are about to make history
Caption: Supporters await a campaign event of Ulrich Siegmund, lead candidate of the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD), prior to state elections in Saxony-Anhalt, in Naumburg, Germany, 24 August 2026. The state of Saxony-Anhalt will hold its state parliamentary election on 06 September 2026. EPA/HANNIBAL HANSCHKE
Updated: September 4, 2026 - 11:52
