A blow from Washington: will U.S. sanctions shatter Georgia’s ruling party?

On 6 May, as Georgians celebrated Saint George’s Day – a revered religious holiday with deep historical resonance – the nation witnessed a pivotal moment in its political trajectory.

This date, marking the 2004 fall of Adjara’s dictator Aslan Abashidze and the 2003 Rose Revolution that ousted Eduard Shevardnadze’s corrupt regime, gained new significance with the U.S. House of Representatives’ near-unanimous passage of the MEGOBARI Act.

This legislation, a resounding rebuke of Georgia’s ruling Georgian Dream party, signals a potential turning point, threatening sanctions and a recalibration of U.S.-Georgia relations.

The MEGOBARI Act – named for the Georgian word “friend” (Mobilizing and Enhancing Georgia’s Options for Building Accountability, Resilience, and Independence)—passed with overwhelming bipartisan support, garnering 349 votes (168 Republicans, 181 Democrats) against just 42 (34 Republicans, 8 Democrats). Its timing, on the eve of Georgia’s deepening drift from Western alignment, underscores its likelihood of becoming law, possibly by late May. For Georgian Dream, this is a devastating blow, shattering hopes of a reset with the United States under President Donald Trump.

The bill’s origins trace back a year, coinciding with Georgian Dream’s push for a controversial “foreign agents” law that signalled a deliberate pivot away from Euro-Atlantic integration. Despite the party’s efforts to frame the act, authored by Republican Congressman Joe Wilson, as unrelated to Trump’s agenda, their attempts to curry favour with the U.S. president have faltered. Georgian ministers visiting Washington have met only junior officials, with no photo ops or warm handshakes to bolster claims of renewed ties. The MEGOBARI Act’s passage dashes these illusions, affirming U.S. resolve to confront Georgia’s anti-democratic slide.

The act proposes sweeping sanctions targeting individuals implicated in “significant corruption,” violence, or efforts to obstruct Georgia’s Euro-Atlantic path, as well as those undermining the country’s sovereignty, stability, and security. Within 90 days of enactment, a sanctions list will be compiled, potentially encompassing Georgian Dream MPs who supported anti-democratic laws since 2014, key government figures, and the party’s founder and de facto leader, Bidzina Ivanishvili.

Congressman Wilson’s preliminary list names prominent figures, including Prime Minister Irakli Kobakhidze, Tbilisi Mayor Kakha Kaladze, Parliament Speaker Shalva Papuashvili, State Security Service head Anri Ohanashvili, Interior Minister Vakhtang Gomelauri, Justice Minister Paata Salia, and others, alongside the National Bank president, a Constitutional Court judge, deputy speakers, the Prosecutor General, and state media propagandists.

Beyond punitive measures, the MEGOBARI Act offers incentives, reaffirming U.S. support for Georgia’s sovereignty and territorial integrity amid Russia’s illegal occupation, and endorsing deeper defence and people-to-people ties. However, these benefits are contingent on Georgia adhering to its constitutional norms and recommitting to a pro-Western trajectory—a prospect Georgian Dream’s Kremlin-leaning policies render increasingly untenable.

Georgian Dream has recoiled, branding the act an “Act of Hostility.” Prime Minister Kobakhidze decried it as “permeated with hostility toward the Georgian people and their elected government,” framing it as a victory of the U.S. “Deep State” over Trump’s administration. Levan Makhashvili, head of the parliamentary committee on European integration, echoed this sentiment, calling MEGOBARI “anything but friendship” and pinning hopes on a Trump veto. Yet, these expectations appear misplaced. Trump, whose foreign policy prioritizes U.S. interests over democratic ideals, has not commented on the bill, and Georgia lacks leverage to sway him. Moreover, Trump may view Georgia’s pro-Russian tilt as squandering decades of U.S. aid intended to anchor its Western orientation.

In contrast, pro-EU President Salome Zurabishvili hailed the vote as “America’s response as a friend,” underscoring its support for Georgia’s democratic aspirations. The act’s passage could galvanize ongoing protests, potentially shifting the domestic power balance. It may also weaken Georgian Dream’s international allies, such as Hungary’s Viktor Orbán, paving the way for EU sanctions and amplifying U.S. pressure.

For Georgian Dream, the MEGOBARI Act is a critical test. The party’s narrative of escaping diplomatic isolation has sustained internal loyalty, but U.S. sanctions could unravel this cohesion, embolden opposition, and reshape Georgia’s political landscape. As the bill nears final approval, its impact promises to reverberate far beyond Washington, challenging the ruling party’s grip and Georgia’s fragile path toward democracy.

Authors: Amiran Khevtsuriani, Professor at Georgian Technical University and Founder of the Georgian-Ukrainian Center, Tbilisi, Yuriy Panchenko, Editor, European Pravda

Sources: European Pravda, U.S. House of Representatives records, Georgian government statements

Caption: A supporter of the Georgian opposition waves the EU and US flags during a protest against the ruling party Georgian Dream near the Parliament building in Tbilisi, 29 December 2024. [EPA-EFE/DAVID MDZINARISHVILI]