Еuropean fears a rushed US–Iran deal could backfire

European allies fear an inexperienced U.S. negotiating team is pushing for a swift, headline‑grabbing framework deal with Iran that could entrench rather than resolve deeper problems, diplomats with past experience dealing with Tehran said.

They worry Washington, eager to claim a diplomatic win for President Donald Trump, could lock in a superficial agreement on Iran’s nuclear programme and sanctions relief, then struggle through months or years of technically complex follow‑on talks.

Diplomats from France, Britain and Germany – which began negotiating with Iran in 2003 – say they have been sidelined.

From 2013 to 2015, the three worked with the United States to secure a deal on curbing Iran’s nuclear programme in exchange for sanctions relief, known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA).

Trump withdrew from the accord – the signature foreign policy agreement of his predecessor Barack Obama – in 2018, during his ⁠first term, calling it “horribly one-sided”.

After 40 days of airstrikes, U.S. and Iranian negotiators opened talks in Islamabad earlier this month, again focused on the familiar trade‑off of nuclear restrictions for economic relief.

Diplomats say deep mistrust and sharply different negotiating styles raise the risk of a fragile framework neither side can sustain politically.

“It took us 12 years and immense technical work,” said Federica Mogherini, who coordinated the talks from 2013 to 2015. “Does anyone seriously think this can be done in 21 hours?”

High-level deal, light on detail

The diplomats said a skeletal agreement may be achievable, built around a nuclear package and an economic package. But they warned the nuclear component remained by far the most contentious.

“The Americans think you agree on three or four points in a five‑page document and that’s it, but on the nuclear file, every clause opens the door to a dozen more disputes,” a second European diplomat said.

Talks are focusing on Iran’s stockpile of roughly 440 kilograms of uranium enriched to 60%, material that could be used for several nuclear weapons if further enriched.

The favoured option is “downblending” inside Iran under International Atomic Energy Agency supervision. Another is a hybrid approach, with some material shipped abroad.

Turkey and France have been mentioned as possible destinations. Shipping material to the United States would be politically difficult for Iran, while Russia is unattractive to Washington, two of the diplomats said.

Even those options would require lengthy negotiations over recovering material possibly buried by airstrikes, verifying quantities and transporting it securely.

Iran has also floated ‌storing material abroad ⁠for a fixed period.

“Whatever happens now is only a starting point,” said a Western diplomat previously involved in nuclear talks. “That’s why the 2015 JCPOA ran to 160 pages.”

Beyond stockpiles lies the deeper dispute over Iran’s right to enrich uranium at all. Trump has publicly pushed for zero enrichment, while Iran insists it has the right to enrich uranium for civilian purposes and denies seeking a bomb.

One possible compromise would be a temporary moratorium followed by resumption at very low levels under strict conditions.

Europeans stressed that a central role for the IAEA, including intrusive verification and unrestricted access, was essential.

“A negotiation with Iran is meticulous and subtle: every word matters,” said Gérard Araud, France’s chief negotiator from 2006 to 2009. “That’s not something you rush.”

Sanctions relief and face-saving

The economic track focuses on lifting sanctions and unfreezing Iranian assets.

In the short term, Iran wants access to limited frozen funds overseas. Broader ⁠sanctions relief would come later and require European buy‑in, diplomats said, as Iranian leaders see European trade as critical over the long term.

Officials say Washington is again separating an agreement in principle from its painstaking follow‑up, an approach they say risks misreading Iranian political culture.

“These talks aren’t a real‑estate deal settled with a handshake,” said a senior regional diplomat briefed by Tehran, referring to the background of Trump’s main negotiators Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner. “They involve sequencing, sanctions relief and reciprocal nuclear steps.”

The war has hardened Iran’s stance, diplomats said, showing it can absorb pressure even as it seeks financial ⁠relief.

Tehran’s top demand is a non‑aggression guarantee after being attacked by the U.S. and Israel during earlier diplomatic efforts.

The concern is shared among U.S. allies. Gulf states want Iran’s ballistic missiles and proxy activities addressed, while Israel is pushing for maximal constraints.

Iran, by contrast, sees its remaining missile capability as a vital deterrent after the war degraded its forces.

Diplomats say demanding total abandonment would be unrealistic without broader security guarantees.

A senior Trump administration official said Washington’s redlines included ending uranium enrichment, dismantling major enrichment facilities, recovering highly enriched uranium and ⁠accepting a broader de‑escalation framework involving regional allies.

Europe is on the sidelines – but still relevant

European officials acknowledge they sidelined themselves in part by pushing last year to reimpose U.N. sanctions and by designating Iran’s Revolutionary Guards a terrorist organisation.

But they say their decision to stay out of the conflict has not gone unnoticed in Tehran.

“There’s simply not enough expertise in this U.S. team,” said one European official, noting that roughly 200 diplomats, financial and nuclear experts were involved in the 2015 talks. “We’ve worked on this file for two decades.”

A White House official said officials from the National Security Council, State Department and Defense Department were present in Islamabad and remained involved.

Cargo ship incident

Concerns grew on Monday that the ceasefire between the United States and Iran might not hold after the U.S. said it had seized an Iranian cargo ship that tried to run its blockade and Iran vowed to retaliate.

Efforts to build a more lasting peace ‌in the region likewise appeared to be on shaky ground, as Iran said it would not participate in a second round of negotiations that the U.S. had hoped to kick off before the ceasefire expires on Tuesday.

The U.S. has maintained a blockade of Iranian ports, while Iran has lifted and then reimposed its own blockade on marine traffic passing through the Strait of Hormuz, which typically handles roughly one-fifth of the world’s oil supply.

The U.S. military said Sunday it fired on an Iranian-flagged cargo ship as the vessel sailed toward Iran’s Bandar Abbas port. “We have full custody of their ship, and are seeing what’s on board!” President Trump wrote on social media.

Iran’s military said ⁠the ship had been traveling from China. “We warn that the armed forces of the Islamic Republic of Iran will soon respond and retaliate against this armed piracy by the U.S. military,” a military spokesperson said, according to state media.

Oil prices jumped and stock markets wobbled, as traders pondered the prospect that traffic in and out of the Gulf would remain at a bare minimum.

Iranian state media reported that Tehran had rejected new peace talks, citing the ongoing blockade, threatening rhetoric, and Washington’s shifting positions and “excessive demands.”

“One cannot restrict Iran’s oil exports while expecting free security for others,” Iran’s First Vice President Mohammadreza Aref wrote on social media. “The choice is clear: either a free oil market for all, or the risk of significant costs for everyone.”

Trump earlier warned Iran that the U.S. would destroy every bridge and power plant in Iran if Tehran rejected his terms, continuing a recent pattern of such threats.

Iran has said that if the United States were to attack its civilian infrastructure it would hit power stations and desalination plants of Gulf Arab neighbours.

With Reuters, edited by g.g.

Caption: Pakistani security officials check people and vehicles at a checkpoint in Islamabad, Pakistan, 18 April 2026. With the ceasefire deadline approaching, US and Iranian delegations are expected to return to Islamabad for a second round of talks following the stalemate of their initial high-level meeting. EPA/SOHAIL SHAHZAD

Updated: April 20, 2026 - 05:22